2016年12月31日 星期六

[展望2017] 近期關於Stockpicker的相關新聞

My last post in 2016.

Being a good stockpicker has been my goal. In 2017, I plan to pick some stocks myself and expect that at least half of them will return 20+% by the end of the year.


(a record for myself) 2016的閱讀足跡

Quite busy in 2016, but still managed to squeeze time reading and listening to some good books.  

A book worm, for sure. Can't live without books. The list is not long, but I am pretty OK with it, considering only two books are written in Chinese. 

2016年12月27日 星期二

[未完成作品] 個股分析: 丹麥珠寶商 Pandora

很久沒有自己寫一篇分析文了.  11月中的時候實在忍不住, 花了一天的時間寫了下面的分析(這才發現,原來自己也能夠在這麼短的時間內, 完成七八成的中文企業分析. 熟能生巧了). 不過實在是心有餘而力不足, 我看這篇是沒有機會完成了(不過也沒關係, 後來發現ADR實在是不太好買). 想想還是貼上blog做個紀念好了. 2017還是想自己寫分析, 不過可能會換個方法(maybe用英文來書寫?), 更有效率地讓自己與讀者掌握公司業務與狀況. 


2016年12月4日 星期日

沐樂園 成長美股研究社團 招募新血中 (招募名額: 15. 申請截止日期: 12月18日)



嶄新的一年即將開始您開始著手列下新年新計劃了嗎如果有的話有沒有把學會如何分析&投資美股放在您的計劃裡呢或是想要學習正統的個股分析方式卻不知如何下手嗎一人完成一隻個股分析負擔好大--想要有夥伴一起來研究嗎Facebook, Google, etc. 這些成長股有興趣嗎對美國本土的中小企業成長股如Ulta也有興趣研究投資嗎每個月願意投入20個小時研究美股嗎如果您對上面任一問題的回答是Yes 的話請您繼續看下去

2016年12月3日 星期六

[美股史] Cramer's Mad Money: Sending A Pro-Business Message

Haven't listened to Cramer for a while......he is still my favorite TV host, taking care of the average investors even though some people dislike him.  Working as a hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs for decades, he does have some good and interesting perspectives that helped open my eyes and understand the climate and mechanism of the financial market. 

Anyways.  Found this piece of information interesting and would like to post it here. 


2016年12月2日 星期五

[貓的碎念] (12.02.2016 Rumbling) [A reminder] How to think like a hedge fund/mutual fund manager?

If you have confidence in one company, why didn't you increase your position when the price was beaten down? Why didn't you dare to buy more share before the earnings call? And maybe, sell on the strength? You didn't, because psychologically you were not ready, and from fundamental's perspective, you were not sure about the business. More training is needed.

And, no one can buy really low.  Focus on the fundamental analysis.  Technical is second. Or not needed. Remember to watch the SMA. And train yourself to calculate the reasonable price.

Sometimes, I really feel I am like a joke.  Like a very inexperienced, naive, passionate kid thinking she is trying her best to handle the stock market.  And even thinks she can help others.  But actually, no.  This kid needs to elevate her view point (again) and think more strategically.  Grow up, kiddo.  And try to say something more constructive.  And you need to act quickly.  Be more responsive.

--Thoughts after talking with a mentor

Little by little, I know how to select good stocks.  But the (other) problem is, how to zone in.

2016年11月28日 星期一

[新聞] 川普效應/美小型股夯 漲幅優於大盤

這陣子忙著幫社團的FB粉絲頁找文章題材, 掃了不少新聞, 感覺也漸漸回來了. 川普一當選, 就明顯感覺到美國中小型股的變化(類股的輪動真的很奇妙). 在眾多股票中, 中小型股算是我比較上手的, 平常也有在關注. 注意到變化後, 就放膽一試, 買了幾隻關注好久的公司股票. Wish me luck. 

2016年11月22日 星期二

[非關投資] [書摘] A six(out of five)-star book: "How Learning Works"

For me, reading this book serves two purposes: one is to help the new members in the study group, and the other is to find answers to the questions (of teaching & learning) I have been asking myself for a while.  I didn't really try to solve the issue that arises in my profession until my partner from the study group pointed out the importance of this.  Half unwillingly, I searched on Amazon and found this book with good reviews, borrowed this book from the library, and read it right away.

Wow.  This book really opens my mind in terms of how people learn.  I can totally relate to what the book is talking about.  I thought about most of the issues before and am so glad that the book provides answers for me and validates my theories/thoughts.  No one had ever told me how to deliver knowledge in a good way.  It feels great that I wasn't over-thinking/over-analyzing--I have been told many times that why I care too much about those minor details.  And feeling great that I was able to discover some of the issues and to sort (some) things out myself before reading this book.

Especially, this paragraph really stroked a chord with me: "Some of us also possess the misconception that good teaching is all about entertainment and personality, and that to be a good teacher one must be outgoing and funny. Not only is this notion inaccurate it is also problematic because it locks both introvert and extrovert teachers in narrow and rigid roles without much room for growth." 

Spent one week finishing this book.  Really hard to put this book down, and really learned a great deal from it. 
  Hopefully I can apply the skills I learned from the book to the new members and my profession. 


Principles of Learning:
1. Students' prior knowledge can help or hinder learning.
2. How students organize knowledge influences how they learn and apply what they know
3. Students' motivation determines, directs, and sustains what they do to learn.
4. To develop mastery, students must acquire component skills, practice integrating them, and know when to apply what they have learned.
5. Goal-directed practice coupled with targeted feedback enhances the quality of students' learning.
6. Students' current level of development interacts with the social,emotional, and intellectual climate of the course to impact learning.
7. To become self-directed learners, students must learn to monitor and adjust their approaches to learning.

Chapter 1: How Does Students' Prior Knowledge Affect Their Learning?
  • We may uncover misconceptions and inaccuracies in students' prior knowledge that are actively interfering with their ability to learn the new materiel.
  • It's important to recognize that not all prior knowledge provides an equally solid foundation for new learning. 
  • Understanding what students know-or think they know-coming into our courses can help us design our instruction more appropriately. It allows us not only to leverage their accurate knowledge more effectively to promote learning, but also to identify and fill gaps, recognize when students are applying what they know inappropriately, and actively work to correct misconceptions. 
  • Research also suggests that asking students questions specifically designed to trigger recall can help them use prior knowledge to aid the integration and retention of new information. 
  • elaborative interrogation
  • Students who had generated relevant prior knowledge outperformed students in he baseline class two to one
  • Exercises to generate prior knowledge can be a double-edged sword, however, if the knowledge students generate is inaccurate or inappropriate for the context.
  • Students learn more readily when they can connect what they are learning to what they already know. However, instructors should not assume that students will immediately or naturally draw on relevant prior knowledge. Instead, they should deliberately activate students' prior knowledge to help them forge robust links to new knowledge.
  • Knowing what (declarative knowledge) is a very different kind of knowledge than know how or knowing when (procedural knowledge)

Chapter 2: How Does the Way Students Organize Knowledge Affect Their Learning?
  • Knowledge organization: how knowledge prices are arranged and connected in an individual's mind. Knowledge can be organized in ways that either do or do not facilitate learning, performance, and retention.
  • Although students often begin with knowledge organizations that are sparse and superficial, effective instruction can help them develop more connected and meaningful knowledge organizations that better support their learning and performance. 
  • The more complex and highly connected knowledge structures allow experts to access and use their knowledge more efficiently and effectively (C & D).

  • When students are provided with a structure for organizing new information, they learn more and better. ==> how can we categorize info?
  • The learning advantage did not apply when the multiple facts were unrelated. 

Chapter 3: What Factors Motivate Students to Learn?
  • When considering the ways that our students' goals influence their learning behaviors, it is worth noting that students' goals for themselves may differ from our goals for them. 
  • If an activity satisfies more than one goal, the motivation to pursue that activity is likely to be higher than if it satisfies only one goal. 
  • Values: attainment value, intrinsic value, instrumental value.
  • To be motivated to pursue specific goals, students must hold positive outcome expectations. 
  • Efficacy expectancy
  • What determines a student's expectation for success? One important influence is prior experience in similar contexts. 
  • Our framework for understanding motivation suggests that if a goal is valued and expectancies for success are positive and the environment is perceived to be supportive, motivation will be highest.  Three levers: value, efficacy expectancies, and the supportive nature of the environment.

Chapter 4: How Do Students Develop Mastery?
  • Three particular elements of mastery that students must develop: (1) the acquitision of key component skills, (2) practice in integrating them effectively, and (3) knowledge of when to apply what they have learned. 
  • In order to teach complex skills systematically--without missing pieces--instructors must be able to "unpack" or decompose complex tasks.  This can be challenging because of expert blind spot, but there are tangible payoffs for student learning. 
  • Decomposing complex tasks helps instructors pinpoint skills that students need to develop through targeted practice. 
  • Structured comparisons--in which students are asked to compare and contrast different problems, cases, or scenarios--have also been shown to facilitate (knowledge) transfer. 

Chapter 5: What Kinds of Practice and Feedback Enhance Learning?
  • Effective feedback can tell students what they are or are not understanding, where their performance is going well or poorly, and how they should direct their subsequent efforts. 
  • Targeted feedback
  • The full benefits of feedback can only be realized when the feedback adequately directs students' subsequent practice and when students have the capacity to incorporate that feedback into further practice. 
  • The feedback must (1) focus students on the key knowledge and skills you want them to learn, (2) be provided at a time and frequency when students will be most likely to use it, and (3) be linked to additional practice opportunities for students. 

Chapter 6: Why Do Student Development and Course Climate Matter for Student Learning? 
  • Many studies have shown that the climate we create has implications for learning and performance. A negative climate may impede learning and performance, but a positive climate can energize students' learning. 

Chapter 7: How Do Students Become Self-Directed Learners?
  • Students who were taught or prompted to monitor their own understanding or to explain to themselves what they were learning had greater learning gains relative to students who were not given any monitoring instruction. 
  • When students are taught to ask each other a series of comprehension-monitoring questions during reading, they learn to self-monitor more often and hence learn more from what they read. 



2016年11月18日 星期五

[書摘/讀後感] Superforecasting

書名:  Superforecasting (中譯: "超級預測:洞悉思考的藝術與科學,在不確定的世界預見未來優勢")

斷斷續續地花上了個把月, 終於把這本書聽完了. 這本書內容很多, 但是重點只有幾個. 下面簡單寫寫(不好意思, 這主要是寫給我自己看的, 所以可能只有我自己看得懂). 對這本書有興趣的讀者可以google找到其他人的書評. 

中文版: http://www.books.com.tw/products/0010726024

Why are super-forecasters so goodWhat matters most is how the forecasters think.
Super forecasting demands thinking that is open minded, careful, humble, curious, and above all, self critical, and it also demands focus. Has growth mindset, grit. Never stop doubting. 

Pattern recognition
Learning a cue
Hours of practice 
Intuition + double check
Unpack a question into components
Zero in on the truth, but you will never eliminate uncertainties entirely. 
Don't have hindsight bias
Group think is dangerous.  Diversity of the perspectives. 
CEO disease

Warren Buffett reads annual reports--> helps him to have intuition--> to tell which business is really good. Forecast.....enhances his probability.....intuition. 

這本書主要是說, 如何做預測, 尤其是超級預測(super forecasting). 作者有提到intuition, intuition其實跟經驗有關: 只要經驗夠了, 對事物就會有intuition--也可以這樣說: 經驗夠了, 預測事情的準備度就會提高. Outliers那本書有提過, 如果要培養一樣技能, 需花上1000小時, 跟這道理是相通的. 而巴菲特為什麼那麼喜歡看年報? 個人猜測, 是因為他喜歡分析企業, 找到好公司. 他看的年報愈多, 愈能分出企業高下. 久了當然經驗多, 自然有intuition, 也提高了勝率, 也敢做集中型投資. 

[書摘] "The Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros" ("當巴菲特遇上索羅斯")

拖了好幾個月, 終於把這本書的重點摘要完成. 

是本很難離手的好書. 雖然有獲得新知, 但其實書中很多觀念, 都是我過去一年裡思考過的問題, 所以深入了解到他們的投資方法, 只是印證並強化了我的想法. 一個是人們眼中的投資者, 一個是人們眼中的投機者, 但是兩者的投資方法卻有相似處. 

這本書"當巴菲特遇上索羅斯": http://www.books.com.tw/products/0010312727
(博客來目前已售完, 可以看看其他書店, 或是跟出版社催催.)

Chapter 1: The Power of Mental Habits
  • 這章節主要是講投資人要有良好的投資心態, 也要不斷地跟自己說(催眠?), 要有信心, 能做好投資. 給自己心理建設, 是投資能夠成功的重要一環.
  • When they invest they're not focused on the profits they expect to make.  Indeed, they're not investing for the money.
  • Master Investors are far more focused on not losing money than on making it.
  • Four elements are needed to sustain a mental habit: 
    • a belief that drives your behavior
    • a mental strategy--a series of internal conscious and subconscious processes
    • a sustaining emotion
    • associated skills

Chapter 2: The Seven Deadly Investment Sins
投資的七宗罪, 可看這裡

Chapter 7: "You Call That a Position?"
  • Stanley Druckenmiller: "[Soros taught me] it's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." 真是太好的一句話了.
  • "Soros has taught me," noted Druckenmiller, "that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular.  It takes courage to be a pig.  It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage."  As far as Soros is concerned, "when you're right on something, you can't own enough."
  • "One of the fictions of investing is that diversification is a key to attaining great wealth.  Not true.  Diversification can prevent you from losing money, but no one ever joined the billionaire's club through a great diversification strategy." 
  • Every successful person, regardless of the field, is single-minded in the pursuit of his goal. They do NOT diversify their energies into a variety of fields.  The result of such single-minded devotion to the achievement of one goal is Mastery. 這篇提到了集中式投資(以前我的貼文有提過, 很多價值投資者是用此方法.....有看對就擴大投資比例的概念)
  • Your time and energy are limited.  The more widely you spread your energies, the less you can spend on any one activity.
  • The only rule they follow is one you'll never learn from your stockbroker: expectancy of gain. The higher their expectancy of profit, the greater the percentage of their portfolio they'll devote to that investment. 
  • Buffett spends his time and energy searching for high probability events that meet his criteria. Expectancy of gain is something that can and should be measured or estimated.  For example: Buffett is looking at two companies.  One is returning 15% on capital and the other 25% on capital.  The shares of both are available at prices he's willing to pay.  He would clearly prefer to put more money into the second company. ==> 找到high probability event的重要性.
  • Soros: "If the stock goes up, you buy more.  You don't care how big the position gets as part of your portfolio.  If you get it right, then build."

Chapter 8: A Penny Saved Is a Dollar Earned
  • 看標題就知道這篇在講甚麼了. 也提到了compound interest的重要性.

Chapter 9 
  • It's no accident that every successful investor narrows his focus to a small segment of all possible investments and specializes in those and those alone. 
  • Circle of competence...that circle he has a competitive advantage that enables himto do better than the market as a whole.  
  • Unable to measure it, his ability to know whether such an investment is likely to be profitable is no different from the average investor's.
  • Warren Buffett: "The most important thing in terms of your circle of competence is not how large the area of it is, but how well you've defined the perimeter."
  • By viewing the investment world trough the lens of his investment criteria, he literally only sees those investments he can understand.

Chapter 10: If You Don't Know When to Say Yes, Always Say No

  • When you enter an unfamiliar arena, regardless of your knowledge and skills you are in a state of unconscious incompetence. Mental habits that underlie success in one area can be so embedded in your subconscious that lead to failure in another. 
  • Buffett: "What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but rather how realistically they define what hey don't know."
  • The Master Investor is very clear about what he does and doesn't understand.  So, when confronted with an investment he doesn't understand, he's simply not interested. His attitude of indifference contrasts starkly with the behavior of the average investor, who let his emotions color his judgement. =>設定自己的能力圈
  • The grass is always greener: investors who don't have the mental anchor of a consistent investment philosophy often end up making investments against their better judgement. 
  • Investors who see other people making money while they are not often succumb to self-doubt and pursue a mirage. Others discount their own knowledge ad expertise as being worthless and seek their pot of gold on some other rainbow, totally unaware they're already sitting on the right one. The common denominator of this behavior is the failure to understand when to say yes and when to say no. 
  • That's exactly why the Master Investor always says no to any investment he does not understand. 
  • Buffett and Soros built their circle of competence by answering these three questions:
    • What am I interested in?
    • What do I know now?
    • What would I like to know about, and be willing to learn?
    • ==>One other important consideration is whether it's possible to make money in an area that intrigues you. 
    • ==> Only by answering these three questions can you find your investment niche and be crystal-clear about your own limitations. 賺錢機會到處都是, 但是要找到自己的利基. 
  • When Buffett looks at the company he understands, thanks to decades of experience in figuring out what a business is worth, his subconscious generates a mental picture of what the company should look like in ten to twenty years.  

Chapter 11: "Start with the A's"
  • Warren Buffett: "If I'm interested in a company, I'll buy 100 shares of all its competitors to get their annual reports."
  • Albert Szen-Gyorgyi Von Nagyrapolt: "Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought."
  • The Master Investor's secret is not so much seeing things that other people don't see, but the way he interprets what he sees. And then being willing to "walk the extra mile" to back up his initial estimate. 
  • Both Soros and Buffett follow a rigorous, systematic approach to uncovering investment that meet their criteria.  Personally in control of the process, they are willing to take every step necessary to ensure that they have found an investment with a high positive profit expectancy. 

Chapter 12: "When There's Nothing to Do, Do Nothing"
  • You don't get paid for activity.  You only get paid for being right.
  • Buffett learnt from Graham that "there would periodically be times when you couldn't find good values, and it's a good idea to go to the beach."
  • Jimmy Rogers: "One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do."
  • The investor whose criteria are incomplete (or, more often, nonexistent) feels he must be in the market at all times. Waiting is alien to his mentality because, without criteria, he has no idea what to wait for.  By contrast, the Master Investor is like a gold prospector.  He knows exactly what he's looking for; he has a general idea of where to find it; he's got all the right tools; and he keeps searching until he discovers gold. 

Chapter 13: Pull the Trigger
  • Warren Buffett: "When we see something that makes sense, we're willing to act very fast and very big."
  • Once the Master Investor has made a decision to buy or sell, he acts immediately. What could hold him back?  He has found an investment that he understands; it meets all his investment criteria; he knows how much he wants to buy or sell at what price and has the resources available; his cumulative experience and the thinking he has done have proven to him the validity of both his investment philosophy and his investment system.  There is nothing else for him to think about.  Buying or selling becomes no more than a routine matter.(買賣時, 很淡定, 情緒上不會受到影響)
  • The investment who has no criteria is always plagued by self-doubt.  There can be no finality to his decision-making process.  He can never be certain he is doing the right thing. (一定要有自己的一套投資或是交易系統, 在做決定要下手的時候, 才不會游移不定.)
  • The Master Investor doesn't only act instantly; he can also decide very quickly whether to make an investment. Sometimes it's almost impossible to distinguish decision from action. 
  • To Buffett and Soros, making an investment decision is like choosing between black and white.  There are no shades of gray; Either the investment meets their criteria or it doesn't.  When it does, they pounce. 

Chapter 14: Know When to Sell Before You Buy
  • No matter how much you time, effort, energy, and money you put into making an investment, it will all come to naught if you don't have a predetermined exit strategy. 進場時, 一定就要先把出場機制做好了. 
  • Buffett sold his investment when: 1) the competitive characteristics of the company change and 2) when he needs the capital to fund an even better investment opportunity. 
  • Exit strategies: 
    1. When criteria are broken.
    2. When an event anticipated by their system occurs.
    3. When a system-generated target is met.
    4. When an investor's system generates a sell signal.
    5. When a mechanical rule triggers action.
    6. When the investor realizes he has made a mistake.
    • ==>An investor without a system or nonexistent criteria is clearly unable to use the first exit strategy.   And neither will he know when he's made a mistake.  An investor without a system cannot have any system-generated targets or sell signals either. 
  • All these exit strategies have one thing in common: For the Master Investor, they take the emotion out of selling. His focus isn't on the profit or loss he might have made in this investment; it's on following his system, of which his exit strategy is merely one part. 

Chapter 15: Never Second-Guess Your System
  • Following a system that almost, but not quite, fits your personality can be profitable. 
  • 心得: 如果投資的方法是技術面與基本面並重, 那在做決策的時候, 就要將兩者考慮進去. 不要因為技術面給你了sell signal, 但執著在基本面. 

Chapter 16: Admit Your Mistakes
  • Soros: "I've probably made as many mistakes as any investor, but I have tended to discover them quicker and was usually able to correct them before they caused too much harm."
  • By having carefully defined his circle of competence, he has already taken most mistakes out of the equation. 
  • Most people think of investment mistakes and losses as being equivalent. The Master Investor's definition of a mistake is more rigorous: not following his system. Even when an investment tat did not fit his criteria ends up being profitable, he still views it as a mistake. 

Chapter 17: Learn from Your Mistakes
    • Warren Buffett: "Can you really explain to a fish what it's like to walk on land?" Buffett asks.  "One day on land is worth a thousand years of talking about it." 
    • Soros: "To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistake is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only if failing to correct our mistakes."
    • Philip Fisher: "mistakes can be even more rewarding than reviewing past successes."
    • Charlie Munger: "It is really useful to be reminded of your errors.  I think we're pretty good at that. We do kind of mentally rub our own noses in our own mistakes.  And that is a very good mental habit."

    Chapter 18: Wishing Won't Make It So
    • Going through the pain of losing real money is an essential component of accumulating experience. How you react to such losses is the crucial element that determines whether you will ultimately succeed or fail as an investor.

    Chapter 19: Keep Your Mouth Shut
    • He knew what he was doing.  He has no need to validate his ideas by seeking confirmation from others. Warren Buffett: "You're neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you." "You're right because your facts are right and our reasoning is right.  That's the only thing that makes you right."

     Chapter 23: Master of His Craft
    • Where you have your mental focus determines your outcome.  The average investor makes the mistake of focusing on the profits he hopes to make.  The Master Investor focuses on the process. "Keep your eye on the ball." ==> This is the same as what's been stated in the previous chapter: A major reason both Soros and Bufett have accumulated so much money is that it was never their primary aim.  If money was the motivating factor they would have stopped long before they were billionaire.  For them, making money is a means to an end, not an end in itself. 

    Chapter 27: Carl Ican and John Templeton
    • Investing is like playing chess. You have to contemplate the present, but you also have to look ahead to the forth, fifth, sixth, or seventh move."

    Chapter 29: Clarify Your Investment Goals
    • Like the Master Investor, you should only act when you know what you are doing. That means keeping within the limits of what you know-and never straying into the unknown. So it's essential you define your own circle of competence.  To do so, simply ask yourself:What am I interested in? What class of investments and what aspects of investing fascinates me? What do I know now? What would I like to know about, and be willing to learn? 
    • Defining your circle of competence is an essential step--but it's not enough.  The hallmark of the true Master Investor is that he is never tempted to step outside the boundaries of his investment niche.  Saying no to that temptation can be one of the more difficult disciplines for the novice investor. 
    • And you may even find.....that there's one particular class of investments where you are a consistent winner.  That would well be your circle of competence(能力圈)

    Chapter 30: What Are You Going to Measure
    • Every successful investor has his own version of the margin of safety: It's the way he minimizes risk.
    • Review what led you to commit that error--and learn from it.  Focus on what is under your control---your own actions. 
    • Buffett and Soros measure their performance against three benchmarks: Have they preserved their capital? Did they make a profit for the year? Did they outperform the stock market as a whole? 

    Chapter 31: Gaining Unconscious Competence
    • Apply all of your rules and make  it become a second nature.  The crucial test is how you will react under pressure and stress.  I't at these times your old habits are most likely to emerge from wherever they were hiding in your subconscious--and get in your way.  Replacing habits you don't want and mastering new ones requires constant repetition. One way to achieve unconscious competence is to test your system in a methodical way, keeping records of everything you do--and why you did it.
    • You can find investment ideas just about anywhere.  What you need to determine is what hunting ground is most fruitful for you.  
    • "Don't think about what the market's going to do; you have absolutely no control over that.  Think about what you're going to do if it gets there."

    [書摘] "The Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros" (中譯"當巴菲特遇上索羅斯") 投資7宗罪

    The Seven Deadly Investment Sins
    1) Believing that you have to predict the market’s next move to make big returns
    Highly successful investors like Soros and Buffett are no better at predicting the market’s next big move than you and I.
    2) The “Guru” belief: if I can’t predict the market, there’s someone somewhere who can – all I need to do is find him.
    If you could really predict the future, you would quietly win the money yourself and not tell anyone about it.
    3) Believing that “Inside Information” is the way to make really big money.
    Warren Buffett’s favourite source of investment “tips” is the company annual report.
    4) Diversifying
    Warren Buffett’s amazing track record comes from identifying a small number of companies and take huge positions in these companies.
    5) Believing that you have to take big risks to make big profits.
    Successful investors are highly risk-adverse and do everything they can to avoid risk and minimize loss.
    6) The “System” belief: somebody, somewhere has developed a system that will guarantee investment profits.
    This is similar to the “guru” belief where investors are looking for a sure thing and the truth is, there is no sure thing.
    7) Believing that you know what the future will bring
    He who believes he already knows the future, would eventually loses most of his capital when the mania comes to an end.

    [書摘]"The Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros" (中譯"當巴菲特遇上索羅斯") 23項贏家習慣/心法

    1. 相信最優先的目標是保本,而這也是投資策略的基石
    2. 以「贏家心法~1」言之,是厭惡風險的
    3. 發展出一套展現自己人格、能力、知識、品味以及目標的方法。因此,不會有兩位表現卓越的人士投資哲學相同
    4. 發展並測試他自己的投資系統,包括選擇、買進和賣出投資標的
    5. 相信分散投資是愚不可及的
    6. 真正的投資贏家不願納稅(和其他的交易成本),而能夠合法將稅負減到最低
    7. 只投資他了解的項目
    8. 不會做出不符合他標準的投資。這樣的人能輕易對其他任何投資說不
    9. 不斷尋找符合標準的投資機會,而且積極專心在自己的研究上。可能只聽取某些受他尊敬的投資人士獲分析師的意見
    10. 當他沒有發現符合他標準的投資時,他會很有耐性地一直等,直到符合他標準的機會出現
    11. 一旦下了投資的決定,他會立刻採取行動
    12. 持有勝券在握的投資,直到有更強的賣出理由浮現為止
    13. 篤信自己的系統
    14. 察覺失敗點在哪裡,在錯誤變得明顯時立刻修正,因此損失程度幾乎很小
    15. 總是把錯誤當作學習的機會
    16. 隨著經驗增加,所獲得的報酬也增加。現在他似乎花更短的時間就能賺更多錢。因為他已經付了應付的學費
    17. 幾乎不與其他人談論他的動向。他不感興趣,也不關心其他人對自己投資的看法
    18. 擅長將大部分的權責授權給他人
    19. 懂得開源節流
    20. 投資的目的是為了刺激和自我實踐,不是為了錢
    21. 在投資過程中投入自己的情感(從其中獲得滿足),也可以隨時從單一的投資中抽身而退
    22. 一天24小時都想著投資
    23. 自負全責,例如華倫.巴菲特擁有99%波克夏.海薩威的股票;喬治.索羅斯也把自己大部分的財產投入量子基金。對於他們兩個而言,自己的財產與別人委託的資金是一體的這裡列


    Winning Habit #1 – Preservation of Capital is Always Priority #1
    The Losing Investor’s investment aim is to make lots of money and they often fail to keep it. Warren Buffett’s famous phrase “Investing Rule No.1: Never Lose Money. Investing Rule No.2: Never forget Rule No.1“. George Soros mentioned – “Survive first and make money afterwards”.

    Winning Habit #2 – Passionately Avoid Risk
    The Master Investor is risk-averse while the Losing Investor thinks big profit can only be made by taking big risks. 

    To manage risk, Master Investors use:
    1) Don’t invest – When they cannot find a suitable investment, they do not invest at all.
    2) Reduce risk – Buffett will only invest when he can buy at a price significantly lower than the estimated value of a business. Warren Buffett – “It’s not risky to buy securities at a fraction of what they are worth”.
    3) Actively managing risk – Soros would constantly monitor the market and change course immediately when necessary. George Soros – “To survive in the financial markets sometimes means beating a hasty retreat”.
    4) Manage risk actuarially – Deal with averages, not individual events. Make sure the odds or probability of winning is tilted to your favor such that, on the average, you can win.
    Winning Habit #3 – Develop Your Own Unique Investment Philosophy
    The Master Investor has developed his own investment philosophy based on his personality, abilities, knowledge, tastes and objectives. No two successful investors have the same investment philosophy. On the other hand, the Losing Investor has either no investment strategy or uses someone else’s.

    Winning Habit #4 – Develop Your Own, Personal System for Selecting Buying and Selling Investments.
    The Master Investor has developed and tested his own personal system for selecting, buying and selling investments while the Losing Investor has no system. The latter has adopted someone else’s system without testing and adapting to his own personality.

    Winning Habit #5 – Diversification is for the Birds
    The Master Investor does not diversify and believes only ignorant investors practice it. The Losing Investor lacks confidence to take a huge position on any one investment. 

    Warren Buffett – “Diversification is a protection against ignorance. [It] makes very little sense for those who know what they’re doing.”

    Winning Habit #6 – Focus on After-tax Return
    The Master Investor always make an effort to legally minimize his tax bill while the Losing Investor neglects taxes and transaction costs, which affects his investment performance. 
    Warren Buffett – “The really good manager does not wake up in the morning and say, ‘This is the day I’m going to cut costs,’anymore than he wakes up and decides to practice breathing.”

    Winning Habit #7 – Only Invest in What You Understand
    The Losing Investor does not realize that a deep understanding in what he is doing is an essential prerequisite to success and rarely realizes that profitable opportunities exist within his own area of expertise. 
    Warren Buffett – “The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. Unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.”

    Winning Habit #8 – Refuse to Make Investments that do not Meet Your Criteria
    The Losing Investor has no criteria to filter investments and cannot say “no” to his own greed. Warren Buffett – “If you don’t inderstand it, don’t do it.”

    Winning Habit #9 – Do Your Own Research
    The Master Investor is continually searching for new investment opportunities that meet his criteria and actively engages in his own research. The Losing Investor is looking for the easy way out and hopes to earn money fast. He would often follow the “hot tip of the month”. 
    Warren Buffett – “If I’m interested in a company, I’ll buy 100 shares of all its competitors to get their annual reports.”

    Winning Habit #10 – Have Infinite Patience
    When the Master Investor cannot find an investment that meets his criteria, he has the patience to wait indefinitely until he finds one that does. The Losing Investor feels he needs to be doing something in the market at all times. 
    Warren Buffett – “The trick is, when there’s nothing to do, do nothing.” 
    George Soros – “To be successful, you need leisure. You need time hanging heavily on your hands.”
    Winning Habit #11 – Act Instantly
    The Master Investor acts instantly when he has made a decision while the Losing Investor procrastinates. Warren Buffett – “When we see something that makes sense, we’re willing to act very fast and very big.”

    Winning Habit #12 – Hold a Winning Investment Until There’s a Pre-Determined Reason to Sell
    The Master Investor holds on a winning investment until a pre-determined reason to exit arises. The Losing Investor rarely has a pre-determined rule for taking profits and often worried about a small profit can turn into a loss, so he cashes in early and misses big gains.

    Winning Habit #13 – Follow Your System Religiously
    While the Master Investor follows his own system religiously, the Losing Investor “second-guesses” his system (if he has one in the first place).

    Winning Habit #14 – Admit Your Mistakes and Correct Them Immediately
    The Master Investor is aware of his own fallability and corrects his mistakes the moment they became evident. This explains why he rarely suffers more than small losses. The Losing Investor hangs onto losing investments in the hope that he’ll be able to “break even”. As a result, often suffers huge losses. 
    George Soros – “Where I do think I excel is in recognizing my mistakes… that is the secret to my success.”
    Warren Buffett – “An investor needs to do very few things aas long as he or she avoids big mistakes.”

    Winning Habit #15 – Turn Mistakes Into Learning Experiences
    The Master Investor always treats mistakes as learning experiences while the Losing Investor never stays with any one approach long enough to learn how to improve it.

    Winning Habit #16 – Pay Your Dues
    As the Master Investor’s experience increases, so does his returns. He then spends less time to make more money and has so called “paid his dues”. The Losing Investor is not aware that it is necessary to “pay his dues” in order to be successful in investing. He also rarely learns from experience and tends to repeat the same mistakes.

    Winning Habit #17 – Never Talk About What You’re Doing
    The Master Investor would not talk to anyone about what he is doing and he is also not interested or concerned with what others think about his investment decisions. The Losing Investor always talk about his investments and “tests” his decisions against others’ opinions rather than against reality.
    Warren Buffett – “My idea of a group decision is to look in the mirror.”

    Winning Habit #18 – Know How to Delegate
    The Master Investor has successfully delegated most if not all of his responsibilities to others while the Losing Investor selects investment advisors and managers the same way he makes investment decisions.
    Warren Buffett – “In evaluating people, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if you don’t have the first, the other two will kill you.”
    George Soros – “I am willing to use different people employing different approaches as long as I can rely on their integrity.”

    Winning Habit #19 – Live Far Below Your Means
    The Master Investor lives far below his means and the Losing Investor lives beyond his means.
    George Soros – “Probably the most tangible benefit [of being a billionaire] is that I get very good tennis games.”
    Warren Buffett – “Money, to some extent, sometimes lets you be in more interesting environments. But it can’t change how many people love you or how healthy you are.”

    Winning Habit #20 – It’s Not About the Money
    The Master Investor does what he does for simulation and self-fulfilment but not for money. The Losing Investor is motivated by money and thinks investing is the easy way to get rich.
    Warren Buffett – “I’ll keep [investing] as long as I live.”

    Winning Habit #21 – Love What You Do, Not What You Own
    The Master Investor is emotionally involved with and gets his satisfaction from the process of investing. He can walk away from any individual investment. The Losing Investor falls in love with his investments.
    Warren Buffett – “I have enjoyed the process [of making money] far more than the proceeds, though I have learned to live with those, also.”

    Winning Habit #22 – Live and Breathe Investing 24 Hours a Day
    The Master Investor lives and breathes investing 24 hours a Day. The Losing Investor is no fully dedicated to achieving his investment goals.

    Winning Habit #23 – Put Your Net Worth on the Line
    The Master Investor puts where his money where his mouth is. His personal wealth is identical to that of the people who has entrusted money to his management. Warren Buffett has 99% of his net worth in Berkshire Hathaway and George Soros keeps most of his money in Quantum Fund. On the other hand, investments of the Losing Investor contribute little to his net worth. In fact, these investments often make losses which have to be made up by other sources of income like salary.