2016年4月23日 星期六

自我警惕文: 勿心猿意馬. 轉貼: "華爾街最強分析師 教你找下一檔黑馬股"

關於手中的標的數量, 自己想要達成的目標, 是專心研究幾隻各股與ETF, 總數不超過十隻為最上策(有厲害的前輩還跟我說3-5隻就夠了, 我功力還沒到這地步). 這跟我的習慣有關--我喜歡深入研究一家公司, 然後好好地來長短期操作與投資這標的.  我體力腦力有限, 這樣對我來說也比較不累. 而許多股友/前輩也跟我提過, 想要擴大獲利, 就要用這種方式. 我自己也發現, 持股數目一旦多了起來, 加上日子忙碌, 就很難顧到每一隻各股, 下場就是很悲慘(像前陣子一樣).

最近發現自己又開始心猿意馬. 手上已經有十來隻標的, 但還想再研究其他的公司與產業. 明明自己最喜歡成長股與趨勢股, 又貪心地想要去研究跟天然氣有關的標的. 

美股可以投資的好公司真的很多, 前輩的話也很有道理: 要學會收斂, 才會有好績效. 這陣子剛好看到這篇文章, 再一次警惕自己, 不要貪心. 要專注. FOCUS. 是該把手邊的標的整理一下的時候了. 



華爾街最強分析師 教你找下一檔黑馬股他,24年前就預言星巴克大爆發
撰文 / 黃瑋瑜
出處 / 今周刊   1009期
2016/04/21
  • 華爾街最強分析師  教你找下一檔黑馬股
華爾街最強分析師 教你找下一檔黑馬股
1
星巴克從一家烘焙咖啡店鋪,成為全球跨國連鎖咖啡霸主,上市二十四年來,市值成長四百倍,展現成長股的威力。《今周刊》從投資經典中歸納成長股的選股邏輯,讓投資人也能靠自己找到下一檔星巴克!
有句話你可能聽過:「能賺到錢的方法,都是好的方法。」在投資世界的各個派別裡,確實都有指標性大師,例如股神巴菲特(Warren Buffett)強調的是價值型投資,天才作手李佛摩(Jesse Livermore)則是投機交易的代表,而專注鎖定「價值成長股」的則有費雪(Philip Fisher)。其他還有被動式的指數型投資、近年市場討論度很高的「存股」等,各門各派共同匯集在投資市場上。

但能在一段期間內擁有超高報酬,則是成長股最迷人的地方。現任GSV投資顧問公司執行長、曾任美林證券研究部主管,並被評為「華爾街最佳分析師」的莫伊(Michael Moe),在暢銷著作《尋找下一支飆股》就點出:一家公司由小變大,買它的股票則會帶來豐碩的回報。


盈餘持續高成長 投資回報率高

他認為,一家公司的股價幾乎百分之百隨著它的盈餘成長波動,因此長期來說,盈餘成長率最高的公司,就是回報率最高的公司。

不過,投資成長股最難的地方,在於如何比別人早一步洞燭機先,發掘不知名卻具成長潛力的公司。莫伊在書中歸納出一套發掘、評估潛力股的系統化模型,從投資觀念到個股如何研究,均一一闡述。

運用這套系統化模型,他在一九九二年星巴克首次公開發行時,就看好該公司潛力。當時星巴克市值僅二.二億美元(約新台幣七十一億元),而現在,它的市值已高達八九八億美元(約新台幣二.九兆元)。

重押少數個股 小型股爆發力強 


「營收和盈餘成長率」是莫伊認為成長型公司最重要的觀察指標。

這個水準除了要超過同業水平,規模越小的公司,還要成長得更快。尤其他認為最具潛力的公司,主要集中在小型股身上,因為每家跨國大集團,一開始都是從沒沒無聞的小公司開始;就像耐吉(Nike)一九八○年初次上市,當時的市值僅有四.一八億美元(約新台幣一三六億元),到現在已成長超過二四○倍,來到一○二七億美元(約新台幣三.三兆元)。

莫伊在書中一再強調盈餘的重要性,他認為只要公司基本面健全、盈餘成長快速,就會反映到未來的股價。因此從蓬勃發展的市場找到成長公司,再觀察長期盈餘成長率是否能超乎分析師預期,只要答案是肯定的,本益比就能再向上推升。


除此之外,對於投資對象,他也認為要集中火力在少數公司,重押幾檔個股來擴大獲利,雖然有其風險,但假如一開始就分散投資,那麼績效也只會是平庸而已。曾任自營部主管、現為專職投資人的黃嘉斌也認為,小型股才是成長爆發力最大的地方。以台股而言,從興櫃市場、股本小於五億元的公司做深入研究,也有機會發現明日之星。

4P法則挑股 挖掘高成長公司

想要找到成長型公司,莫伊歸納了兩大步驟,首先要研判各行業的大趨勢,確定投資主軸;再來則是依據個別公司,一一檢視投資價值。

在近期的產業趨勢上,黃嘉斌認為大趨勢不多,但還是可從小趨勢中尋找利基型產業。像是企業購併,以往是為了擴大營收規模,現在則是增強技術能力,因此具有獨特性技術的小公司,就值得留意。

另外,像是近期不少公司搭上富爸爸效應,股價大幅成長,尤其是掌握利基技術,具高毛利卻規模較小的公司,一旦有富爸爸的訂單挹注,省去開發市場的費用,獲利也會提升。

例如中華精測有富爸爸中華電信加持,掛牌上櫃以來,股價表現強勢。其他像是高齡化社會的長照趨勢、醫療保健產業,或是汽車電子化等,也都值得關注。

至於個別公司的投資價值,可從四P來觀察,包括人才(People)、產品(Product)、市場潛力(Potential)、可預測性(Predictability)。其中以人才最為重要,因為一家公司的好壞,領導人因素可占一半以上,好的人才可以讓公司變得與眾不同。例如經營者在業界是否有好的口碑及品格、是否關心股東的權益,以及實際掌握的股權等,皆可作為判斷的依據。

財經記者、同時也是《成長股投資日記:星巴克的一年》作者布魯曼索(Karen Blumenthal)在書中就寫道:「買星巴克股票的人,可能以為他們是投資在好咖啡,或愉悅的服務,甚至是蕭茲(星巴克董事長)的行銷天才上,但他們投資的也是沙茲曼(星巴克展店部主管)這些精明幹練的人才。」可見星巴克在高速成長時,人才絕對是不可或缺的要素。

然而產品也要有賣點,可從產品或服務是否不易模仿、研發投資占營收的比例,以及理念創新的程度等,來判斷企業是否具成長利基。

以星巴克為例,特殊口味的咖啡、店內裝潢營造高雅氣氛,就是產品最大的特色;再符合店面擴展速度的市場潛力,以及都會生活顧客光顧次數成長的可預測性,就完全符合四P的標準。

評估黑馬股 兩公式教你算出

當然,在股票市場上,如何評估公司價值的模型還是相當重要。莫伊提出兩個評估成長型公司價值的模型,首先,是投資大眾較為熟悉的本益比除以預期的盈餘成長率,俗稱PEG法,一般而言,成長型公司的比值會在一上下。

至於P/S法(市值/營收、股價/每股營收)則是針對獲利微薄的新創公司,可根據營收狀況預估未來獲利狀況,若企業成長快速,P/S可達三以上。以星巴克二○○四年為例,市值約二五○億美元,營收約六十億美元,P/S達四以上,符合快速成長的企業。

只要跟隨大師學習投資心法與選股邏輯,進一步判斷趨勢與公司潛力,你也有機會找到一檔飆股,獲利十倍、百倍!

4步驟找到明日之星

投資前:建立正確觀念
分析基本面,專注快速成長的公司
一旦公司出了問題,就趁早出場
針對每檔投資的股票,保持5個獨立的消息管道
至少要有3個理由,才能判斷一檔股票的漲跌

1.分析大趨勢


‧節能意識抬頭,綠能環保產業受關注
‧因應高齡化社會,醫療保健有商機
‧企業提升競爭力,購併整合成趨勢
‧車聯網時代來臨,帶動汽車電子高速發展
‧富爸爸題材加持,業績獲利有成長機會

2.看公司潛力

人才:要有英明的領袖及精英團隊
產品:有特殊或出類拔萃的特質
潛力:市場的成長速度及占有率
可預測性:可預期的經營方針及獲利能力

3.算標的價值

PEG法:本益比/預期盈餘成長率,成長型股票數值約為1
P/S法:(市值/營收、股價/每股營收),快速成長公司,數值可能達3至4,適用於未獲利的新創公司

4.找參考資訊

‧勤於閱讀報紙、期刊
‧聽取產業專家意見
‧觀察投資高手的腳步
‧留意明星經理人操作紀錄


原文出處:



2016年4月17日 星期日

(無關投資) High 70s. Sunkissed

Alas, the temperature hit 70s today. And it's sunny.  A beautiful, sunny, breezy, kind of warm spring day.

Born in summer, I can't live without sunshine - it's my source of life and energy.  However, living in a place where winter lasts couple of months, getting sunshine in winter is hard, really hard.  Located close to the Lake Superior, the town is cloudy all the time thanks to the Lake Effect.  Lacking of exposure to sunshine, I have to remind myself to take vitamin D in winter, otherwise something (really) bad would happen.  

Haven't seen lots of sunshine in winter, I started to fidget since last Friday afternoon.  How funny I fidgeted because of the the bountiful sunshine and warm weather! I couldn't calm down and file taxes, I couldn't read.  I just wanna went outside and felt my source of life.

It's so different when you expose yourself to sunshine from inside of the house than from the outside. I prefer the latter.  Plus, I enjoy inhaling the fresh air, the air that mixes with burned wood, dirt, and grass.

Taking a break from tax filing, today I decided to tidy up the yard, instead of going running at the trail.  I was able to pick up all the branches that fell over the past winter and set them aside.  I like the feelings when breeze and sunshine touched my skin.  It makes me feel alive.  So great.  I can't ask for more.  And I like to hear the neighbors chatting and kids playing.  It's so vivid and alive.  Especially, I was able to hear various birds chirping in the backyard.  I can't wait for all my little friends to come back from the south.  And I am excited to see the plants start to show buds and grow leaves. The hydrangea I propagated last winter started to grow as well.  NICE!   

Pale skin kissed by the sun today.  Looking forward to more days like this.   

 (tulips)

(lilac)

(Wrote this piece under the sun.)

2016年4月15日 星期五

[轉貼] Morgan Stanley's “Buy and Hold” Best Bets for the next three years

先收起來, 慢慢研究.

在最後一段, 可以看到Morgan Stanley挑股時, 看重的是競爭優勢, 經營模式, 定價能力, 是否否能夠節省成本提高效能, 成長率, 以及管理者的經營能力與公司對投資人是不是友善(to identify the best franchises for investors to get behind for the next three years, Morgan Stanley scored its universe on factors like competitive advantage, business model, pricing power, cost efficiency and growth, while also considering management chops, governance and shareholder friendliness.)

*******

Morgan Stanley's Best Bets For 2019: Forget Valuation And Buy Franchises Like Facebook, Apple And Nike
(April 14, 2016)
It’s mid-April and investors are focused on earnings season, oil prices and the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates, but for those willing to take a little bit of a longer view, Morgan Stanley offered up a list of 30 stocks Thursday that are its best bets for the next three years.
“It’s really hard to bet against quality in the long run,” writes chief U.S. equity strategist Adam Parker,” so the firm’s research analysts highlight the best businesses in their sectors, not the ones that look cheapest or have the best leverage to the current point of the economic cycle, where global growth is slowing and central bank policies are diverging.
 “Our driving principle was to create a list of companies whose business models and market positions would be increasingly differentiated by 2019.
So which stocks does Morgan Stanley favor for a three-year “buy and hold”? Some are the usual suspects.
Facebook's billion-plus user base affords the opportunity for a deeper moat and expanding margins, Morgan Stanley says, but some of it’s underlying businesses have unappreciated potential. The firm expects Instagram to produce $6.4 billion in advertising revenue in 2019, part of a projected 22.1% annual growth rate that will keep Facebook out ahead of peers. At 31 times future earnings Facebook shares aren’t cheap, but they’re also far from the most expensive among fast-growing tech companies.
This week, Facebook launched bots on its Messenger service aimed at keeping people on the platform for more of their daily activity and transactions, aping a model that Apple has deployed to great effect. Morgan Stanley calls the iOS ecosystem “the world’s most valuable technology platform, and projects that a focus on monetizing the massive installed base of users that already generates more revenue than any Internet company beside Amazon, which also made the list.
Apple qualifies as dirt cheap compared to some of the other names on the list, with shares going for less than 10 times earnings when accounting for the company’s massive cash pile. T-Mobile, by comparison, goes for more than 50 times expected 2016 earnings, but Morgan Stanley thinks the scrappy competitor to AT&T, Verizon and Sprint has an opportunity to grab more market share thanks to greater iPhone penetration, the expansion of its MetroPCS business and a view that the company is the most “customer-friendly” of the wireless providers with promotions like recently giving all subscribers free access to Major League Baseball’s live-streaming app for the entire season.
In the athletic apparel business, Morgan Stanley prefers the a stalwart to the upstart, picking Nike for the next three years rather than Under Armour. The latter’s strong U.S. growth could continue to lure away customers, but Nike is hardly a stodgy has-been. Evolving technology, massive global reach and huge events like the Olympic and World Cup favor the Swoosh, and Nike sales should grow 9% annually through 2015.
Perhaps more surprising on the list are names like IBM, which has struggled with a shift toward toward cloud-based businesses and analytics, a transformation that is “underappreciated” to Morgan Stanley.
Then there’s JPMorgan Chase, which the firm argues will gain market share in areas like payments and cut back expenses in its core banking business, but still faces the ongoing headwind of extremely low interest rates. The bank is unquestionably cheap though, trading for just a hair above book value. The question is whether the undervaluation of financial companies is a permanent affliction, or just a lingering after-effect from the financial crisis that will ultimately ease.

To identify the best franchises for investors to get behind for the next three years, Morgan Stanley scored its universe on factors like competitive advantage, business model, pricing power, cost efficiency and growth, while also considering management chops, governance and shareholder friendliness. See the full list below.
30 For 2019

原文出處:

2016年4月11日 星期一

[貓的碎念] Crazy Feb. & March

Finally, I was able to take a "little" break (yeah, just a little).......

In late Jan., I started a growth stock study group with some friends I met online.  Since I am the one who took the initiative, I had to handle every part of the admin stuff--doing surveys, writing SOPs, assigning teammates to groups, doing follow-ups, etc.  Luckily, I have a partner to work with (thanks for your volunteering and help, P), and this really makes a BIG HUGE difference. 

It's quite stressful to be a leader of the study group.  I was rarely a leader material.  But I guess the current profession helps quite a bit.  Since I am also a leader for one sub group, I have to study something I am familiar with but not quite good at.  Being a type A person, my life in March was quite crazy. Eyes were abused.  Sleep was deprived.  I even missed the great stock market opportunity in Feb.:(

Little by little, I am able to see the difference and transformation.  There are definitely ups and downs, but I can say we are in good shape and are on the right track.  We just finished our first round of analysis (YEAH!!!) -- there is definitely room for improvement, but I am quite satisfied with the result.  And I am touched by everyone's most members' (oh well) efforts.  Studying a stock alone is time consuming.  Working with a team sheds the workload. What a difference!  Thank you my comrades.

In retrospect, I don't know how I had the courage to do such a thing (organizing a study group). When feeling depressed and stressed out, I even doubted myself and wondered whether I would do this again if I turned back time.  Thankfully I got many supports from comrades, and this makes me keep going.  

I truly believe that some day, each of the members on the study group is able to learn a lot from other group members, and we are all able to make money from the stock market, big time. 

***
Books I read in Feb. and March in preparation for the task: "Strategic Management: Concepts", "Finance Basics for Managers", "Poor Charlie's Almanac", "Fundamental Analysis for Dummies", "Co-petition" (finished half of it).  Yeah, that's why I said my eyes were abused. 

2016年4月10日 星期日

[轉貼] 未來十年的中國 (by 晨星)

剛剛看晨星個股分析, 其中莫名其妙來了這一大段, 想說就整理一下跟大家分享. 這份網路上有研究公司出價US$400給人看整份....大家加減看看, 看了就算賺到了:)  若有朋友習慣看中文, 可以將整段文章放入Google翻譯器裡面. 


China 2025: 10 Predictions for the Next 10 Years (by Morningstar)
Daniel Rohr, Sector Director, 07 March 2016

China's faltering economy has sent shivers through global markets in 2016, and for good reason. As the world's second-largest economy and leading source of global growth for the past decade, China matters more than ever. Guessing what comes next for China and the implications for the rest of the world are exercises fraught with uncertainty. We believe China's arrival at two major and near-certain, inflection points alleviates some of that uncertainty. First is China's economic rebalancing. As we've argued for the past five years, excess capacity across broad swathes of the economy and mounting bad debt will force a transition to consumption-led growth. The second inflection point concerns China's demographics. The country's working-age population will shrink by 43 million by 2030, by which time China will have more seniors than the EU, Japan, and the U.S. combined. These two inflection points shape much of our long-term outlook, which we've summarized here with 10 predictions for the next 10 years.

First, we expect China's GDP growth to slow to less than half the pace of the past 10 years. The historical experience of economies making the transition from investment-led to consumption-led growth shapes much of this outlook. In every case, the rebalancing economy experiences not only a sharp deceleration in investment growth, but also weaker consumption growth. Historical precedent also suggests magnitude matters; the bigger the boom, the weaker the ensuing GDP growth. Worryingly, China's boom has been greater in magnitude and duration than anything that has come before. In our view, consensus expectations, while moderated, remain too optimistic in the 5%-6% range. We expect GDP growth to average between 1.5% and 4.5% in the next 10 years. Attaining the upper end of that range would require major reforms to unleash household consumption, reallocate credit from the state to private sector, and boost productivity at China's bloated state-owned enterprises.

Second, we believe reforms are likely to disappoint, making even 4.5% GDP growth a challenge. Our skepticism is rooted in the inherent conflict between key reforms and Beijing's two overriding political aims: control and stability. For example, we think it is unlikely Beijing will allow the major defaults that would be necessary to eliminate state-owned enterprises' preferential credit access and reallocate credit to more productive borrowers. Doing so would risk massive social disruptions and would diminish the state's control over capital allocation. For similar reasons, we doubt meaningful interest rate liberalization is a near term prospect, as many state-owned borrowers would be unable to afford market-set interest rates. Consequently, the implicit wealth transfer from household savers to state-owned borrowers is likely to persist, hindering consumption growth.

Third, stimulus is likely to prove ineffective at best. Questions of whether Beijing will go back to its old growth playbook overlook evidence that the government has been trying to stimulate the economy since November 2014. Multiple interest rate cuts and reductions to the portion of deposits banks must hold in reserve haven't delivered the sort of boost they did in prior years. This is partly because of borrower unwillingness to invest amid a deteriorating economic outlook, a reticence reflected in all-time low readings on the central bank's loan demand survey. It's also because of capital outflows from China, which we estimate at roughly $640 billion in 2015. The case against stimulus extends beyond doubts over its efficacy. Many of the problems China is dealing with today, from excess capacity to bad debt to falling prices, are the consequences of too much stimulus. At this point, stimulus is a shot of whiskey to cure a hangover.

Fourth, despite looser family planning laws, we expect births to fall by 25 million versus the past 10 years. The female population of child-bearing age will fall by 50 million by 2025, with 41 million of that decline concentrated in women with the highest fertility rates: those ages 20-29. Assuming no change in age-specific fertility rates, births would decline by 30% by 2025. A comparison of Chinese fertility rates versus those of neighboring countries at similar points in their economic development suggest economic and cultural factors account for China's low birth rate, not government policy.
Fifth, China's urban population growth will fall by nearly half. Over the past 10 years, as China urbanized roughly 200 million people, it traversed the "steep" portion of the urbanization-to-income curve we observe globally. Looking ahead, that curve flattens considerably, with lower urbanization growth for each percentage point of GDP growth. Moreover, China will also be moving along that curve at a slower pace because of weaker GDP growth. We forecast China will urbanize 115 million over the next 10 years. While this would mark a significant deceleration, it would nonetheless see China add the equivalent of Japan's entire urban population.

Sixth, we believe the RMB will fall by 20% against the U.S. dollar. Defending the de facto dollar peg amid massive capital outflows has cost the PBOC billions in foreign exchange. Unless the underlying causes of capital flight are addressed, including expectations of falling interest rates and a weaker RMB, we see little reason for those outflows to end. By devaluing the RMB to a level approximating market expectations, Beijing would reduce a major incentive for capital to leave China. A fair value estimate that draws on the global relationship between market exchange rates and purchasing power parity exchange rates across income levels suggests that level is roughly 8 renminbi per U.S. dollar.

Seventh, we expect China's economic rebalancing to trigger another "Dark Age" for industrial commodities such as copper, coal, and steel. China is the dominant consumer of industrial commodities and has accounted for the overwhelming majority of global demand growth in the past decade. We forecast China's industrial commodity demand to decline in the next several years as investment growth wanes. As a result, demand growth globally is likely to expand far slower than global GDP. Historically, sub-GDP demand growth has been associated with falling real commodities prices, a situation that prevailed in the decades prior to China's investment boom.

Eighth, we doubt India will fill China's shoes as far as commodity demand is concerned. India is the only country that can match China's demographic heft. The fact that Indian GDP per capita now approximates that of Chinese GDP per capita 10 years ago has led many to suggest that Indian commodity demand is on the verge of take-off. This line of thinking confuses the origins of China's commodity demand growth. It wasn't so much China's level of development a decade ago, nor the economic growth it registered in subsequent years that led to China's insatiable appetite for commodities. Rather, it was the heavy investment orientation of the Chinese economy. Unless India duplicates China's growth model, India will not deliver the same boost to global commodity demand. Because of India's pluralistic political structure and because New Delhi lacks Beijing's tools to shape economywide capital allocation, we doubt India's growth pattern is likely to follow that of China.

Ninth, we believe China's health spending will more than double. We expect healthcare outlays to grow far faster than GDP for a couple broad reasons. First is the tendency of healthcare to claim a larger share of total spending as incomes rise. This trend is evident globally and within China itself. Second is the fact that China is aging at an incredible pace. China's population 65 and older will be 50% larger by 2025 and 130% larger by 2030, by which time it will have more seniors than the EU, U.S., and Japan combined. China will be an "old" country by middle income standards and we expect it to spend proportionately more on healthcare than the typical middle income country.

Tenth, despite many high profile predictions that China will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the relatively near future, we don't see that happening in the next decade. At prevailing exchange rates and assuming the U.S. musters 2.2% annual GDP growth (in line with the IMF's forecast) while China grows at 4.5% (the upper end of our 10-year forecast), the U.S. economy would be roughly 30% larger than China's by 2025.

2016年4月9日 星期六

[好文轉貼] 全球管理思想的奥斯卡看這裡!

裡面不乏許多好書.....存檔以便日後參考.


(原文章發表於10.09.2015)

全球管理思想家的頂級排行榜Thinkers 50日前公佈了今年的候選名單。該榜單已創立12年,每2年評選一次,被稱作“管理思想界的奧斯卡”。

今年的榜單創下了女性提名者最多的記錄 。管理思想家的國籍也愈來愈多樣化,此次包含了來自超過12個國家的候選人。

獎項分十個類別:創新、數字化思維、戰略、實踐應用、領導力、人才、社會企業、CK 普拉哈拉德突破性觀念獎、雷達獎(頒給很可能塑造未來的思想家​​)以及終身成就獎。其中數字化思維、人才、社會企業獎、實踐應用是今年新設立的獎項。

每項提名都囊括了過去兩年該類別最閃耀的管理思想家,一些人頗具前瞻性的洞見揭示了商業社會未來發展的走向。窺見未來的最好方法,就是通過這些大師的學術著作或演講。

以下是今年T50的入圍名單及入圍理由,無刪節奉上,希望其中某位思想家的研究對讀者有所啟發。

突破性觀念

某位思想家某個激進的想法,可能會永遠改變我們對商業的認知。從“泰勒主義”到“金字塔底層的財富”,新思想挑戰著我們對世界的看法。這一獎項獻給那些像C.K.普拉哈拉德一樣的人。他們證明了,世界上沒有什麼像偉大的理念那樣實際。

上屆獲獎者:

艾倫麥克阿瑟基金(Ellen MacArthur Foundation):循環經濟

維賈伊·戈文達拉揚(Vijay Govi​​ndarajan): 300美元造個房

2015年候選名單:

1. 協同消費(Collaborative Consumption) /瑞秋·波特斯曼(Rachel Botsman)聯合基金前創始合夥人,克林頓總統基金主任。有超過200萬人觀看了她在Ted大會上關於協同消費的演講。

2. 對等公司(Peers Inc.)/羅賓·蔡斯(Robin Chase)P2P經濟的實踐應用。 Zipcar的聯合創始人、交通業創業者羅賓·蔡斯是其擁護者。同名書籍由Public Affairs出版社在2015年出版。

3. 指數型增長組織(Exponential Organizations)/ 薩立馬·伊斯梅爾(Salim Ismail), 邁克爾·馬隆(Michael Malone)和尤里範格斯特( Yuri van Geest)伊斯梅爾是一名創業家,雅虎前副總裁,奇點大學的創始執行董事。馬隆是著名的記者和作家;範是荷蘭數字化顧問和演講家。他們合著有《指數型增長組織》(Diversion出版,2014年)

4. 藍海領導力/W錢·金和勒妮·莫博涅(W Chan Kim & Renée Mauborgne)合著有全球暢銷書《藍海戰略》(HBR出版,2005),兩人都是英士國際商學院的教授。藍海領導力是他們將領導力重構為一種服務的理論。

5. 群體智慧(Collaborative Intelligence) /達瓦娜·馬爾科娃(Dawna Markova)和安吉·麥克阿瑟( Angie McArthur)馬爾科娃曾是麻省理工學院的教授,兩人創立了諮詢公司Professional Thinking Partners,並在2015年的新書《群體智慧》(Random House出版)中提出了CQ(群體智商)的概念。

6. 行為鍛煉/ Lee Newman這一概念指出我們可以像健身那樣微調和改進日常工作中的行為。來自IE商學院教授和前諮詢顧問的Lee Newman,將積極心理學和領導力相結合。

7. 合弄制(Holacracy) 布萊恩·羅伯遜(Brian Robertson)位於費城的前CEO和創業家。 《合弄制》的作者(Portfolio出版,2015年)該書為等級制度提供了解毒劑。

8. 領導力資本指數/ 戴夫·烏爾里克(Dave Ulrich)密歇根大學羅斯商學院的高產作家,提供了一種讓投資者能夠評估機構領導力強度的指數。

數字化思維

這是一個新設立的獎項。數字化技術改變了我們工作的環境,同樣被改變的還有人類理解自身的方式。但哪些思想家的研究和洞見真正對新的數字化現實作出了最新最原創的解析? T50數字化思維獎為您評選出在數字化領域最有益於人類的洞見。

2015年候選名單:

1. 埃里克·布林約爾松(Erik Brynjolfsson)& 安德魯·麥卡菲(Andrew McAfee)來自麻省理工學院,合著有《第二次機器革命》(Norton出版,2014)和《與機器賽跑》(Digital Frontier Press出版,2011)

2. 恩里克·丹斯(Enrique Dans) ,西班牙IE商學院教授,enriquedans.com博客寫手,最知名的西班牙技術輿論影響者之一。

3. 彼得·戴曼迪斯(Peter Diamandis) X Prize基金創始人,合著有《富足》(2012,Free Press出版)。 Bold (Simon & Schuster出版, 2015)。奇點大學的聯合創始人。

4. 烏馬爾·阿格(UmairHaque)評論員,HBR博主,著有The Lamp and the Light(ebook出版,2015)

5. Nilofer Merchant 在矽谷工作的前執行官,著有11 Rules for Creating Value in the Social Era(HBR出版社,2012年)

6. 艾利克斯·彭特蘭(Alex ‘Sandy’ Pentland,外號“桑迪”)麻省理工學院人類動力學實驗室主管。著有《智慧社會:大數據與社會物理學》(企鵝出版社,2014年)

7. Don Tapscott(唐·泰普斯科特)著有Digital Capital、Wikinomics,Radical Openness(Ted,2013)點擊收看他的TED演講:開放世界的四原則。

8. 吉姆·懷特赫斯特(Jim Whiteburst)前達美航空CEO,現任紅帽公司CEO。著有The Open Organization (HBR出版,2015)

創新

如果“必要性”是發明之母,那麼創新就是發明之父。創新、革新這個詞來自於拉丁文,意思是“做些新的”。無論對組織還是社會都迫切需要。 T50創新獎找出那​​些在過去兩年裡,對我們理解創新貢獻最多的思想家。

上屆獲獎者:

納維·拉朱(NaviRadjou)和克萊頓·克里斯坦森(Clay Christensen)

2015年候選名單:

1.斯科特·安東尼(Scott Anthony)創見公司(Innosight)的合夥人。和克萊頓·克里斯坦森合著作者。本人著有The first mile(HBR出版社,2014)

2.亞歷克莎·克萊(Alexa Clay)和凱拉·瑪雅·菲利普斯(Kyra Maya Phillips)創新來源於絕境。在《另類經濟》一書中,兩人解釋瞭如何像強盜、海盜學習創新Simon & Schuster出版社, 2015)

3.羅恩·吉布森(Rowan Gibson)Innovation Excellence的合夥創始人,最近的著作Four Lenses of Innovation(Wiley出版社,2015)

4.維賈伊·戈文達拉揚(Vijay Govi​​ndarajan)創造了逆向創新的概念。即將於2016年出版新書Three box solution(HBR出版社,2016)

5.琳達·希爾(Linda Hill)哈佛商學院教授,合著有《集體天才》(HBR出版社,2014)

6.加里·皮薩諾( Gary Pisano)哈佛商學院教授,合著有Producing Prosperity,(HBR出版社,2012年)。剛剛在《哈佛商業評論》2015年6月刊發表了創新戰略引領成功一文。

7.阿爾夫·雷恩(Alf Rehn),芬蘭學者,演講家。著有《危險的觀點》 (Marshall Cavendish出版社, 2011)。合著有Trendspotting(ebook出版, 2013).

8.胡安.帕布羅.瓦茲奎茲.桑佩雷(Juan Pablo Vazquez Sampere)西班牙IE商學院教授,HBR高產博主,將顛覆性創新概念應用到當前的管理問題。

領導力

任何類型的團隊,企業和組織都需要領導力。但是領導力的本質以及我們對這一角色的理解卻在不斷更新。 T50領導力獎授予那些為這一歷久彌新的話題提供強大卻原創想法的思想家。

上屆獲獎者:

艾米妮亞·伊瓦拉(Herminia Ibarra)和馬歇爾·戈德史密斯(Marshall Goldsmith)

2015年候選名單:

1. 埃米·卡迪(Amy Cuddy)哈佛商學院社會心理學家,今年將出版新書Presence

2.馬歇爾·戈德史密斯(Marshall Goldsmith)世界頂級高管教練和作家,最近的作品是Triggers(Crown出版社,2015年)

3. 哈爾·格雷格森(Hal Gregersen)麻省理工領導力中心執行董事,合著有《創新者的基因》(HBR出版社,2011)

4.海蒂·格蘭特·霍爾沃森( Heidi Grant Halvorson)哥倫比亞大學商學院的社會心理學家,神經學領導力機構的社會心理學家。著有No One Understands You and What to do About It(HBR出版社,2015)

5. 艾米妮亞·伊瓦拉(Herminia Ibarra)是英士國際商學院教授,著有暢銷書Think Like a Leader, Act Like a Leader (HBR出版社,2015)

6. 弗雷德·基爾(Fred Kiel)明尼阿波利斯領導力諮詢公司KRW國際的聯合創始人,著有Return on Character (HBR出版社, 2015).

7. 詹比耶洛.彼崔格里利(Gianpiero Petriglieri)精神病學家,英士國際商學院教授,HBR博主。

8. 莉茲•懷斯曼(Liz Wiseman)前甲骨文公司高管,著有《成為乘法領導者》(Harper, 2010),合著有The Multipliers Effect ,(Corwin出版社, 2013),以及Rookie Smarts : Why Learning Beats Knowing in the New World of Work (HarperBusiness出版社, 2014)

社會企業

社會企業——目標是通過做善行賺取利潤的企業,它挑戰了我們對企業和其社會角色的認知。獲得T50社會企業獎的商業思想家,幫助我們更好地了解了這種尚處於發展中的組織。

2015年候選名單:

1.利亞姆·布萊克( Liam Black)英國最著名的社會企業家之一。成功領導了眾多社會企業。最近的一家是和知名廚師傑米·奧利弗 (Jamie Oliver)一起創辦的Fifteen.著有there’s no business like social business (The Cat’s Pyjamas出版社, 2004)以及 the Social Entrepreneur’s A to Z(2014).

2. 比爾·德雷頓(Bill Drayton)Ashoka的創始人兼CEO.一家致力於在全球尋找並培養社會企業家的非營利組織。

3.帕梅拉·哈蒂根( Pamela Hartigan)牛津大學賽德商學院斯科爾社會企業研究中心主任。施瓦布社會企業家基金會總經理;合著有《不可理喻的力量:社會企業家如何創造市場並改變世界》 (HBR出版社, 2011).

4.麗貝卡·亨德森( Rebecca Henderson)哈佛大學教授,國家經濟研究局研究員,Leading Sustainable Change一書的編輯之一((OUP出版社, 2015)),主講哈佛商學院“重塑資本主義”課程,HBR博主。

5. 莉拉·詹納(Leila Janah)社會企業家,SAMA集團創始人,俱樂部馬德里領導獎(the Club de Madrid Leadership Award)最年輕的獲得者。社會企業聯盟提名的年度社會企業家,財富雜誌最有權力的女性企業家之一,企業家雜誌2014年評選的科技領域七位最有權力的女性之一。

6.約翰娜·邁爾( Johanna Mair)德國柏林赫爾梯行政學院教授,斯坦福中心慈善及公民社會訪問學者,斯坦福社會創新評論學術編輯。

7. 亞歷克斯·尼克爾斯(Alex Nicholls)牛津大學賽德商學院社會企業教授,即將出版Changing the Game: The Politics of Social Entrepreneurship

8. 薩莉·奧斯博格和羅傑·馬丁(Sally Osberg& Roger Martin)奧斯博格是斯科爾基金的總裁和CEO;馬丁是暢銷書作家,羅特曼管理學院馬丁繁榮研究所主任。奧斯博格和馬丁合寫有Two Keys to Sustainable Social Enterprise’(HBR, 2015年5月刊) 和Getting Beyond Better (Harvard出版社, 2015).

戰略

假如你在管理一家企業,會向誰尋求戰略建議?發展方向和實現目標的方法主要取決於管理和領導力。戰略是組織的智力資本也是靈感之源。 T50戰略獎授予最佳戰略思想。

上屆獲獎者:

麗塔·麥格拉斯(Rita McGrath),W錢·金,和勒妮·莫博涅(W Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne)

2015年候選名單:

1. 理查德·達維尼(Richard D’Aveni)塔克商學院教授,超強競爭理論的創造者,最近的著作是關於3D打印革命的影響。其作品包括Strategic Capitalism (McGraw Hill出版社, 2012).

2. Niraj Dawar毅偉商學院教授,著有《傾斜:將你的戰略從產品轉移到客戶》(HBR出版社,2013)(Catherine: 前一篇的好書推薦就是推薦這本)

3. Pankaj Ghemawat 紐約大學斯特恩商學院教育和管理全球化主任,管理學和戰略學教授。著有World 3.0 (HBR出版社, 2011.)

4. 本傑明·戈梅斯-卡塞雷斯(Benjamin Gomes-Casseres)布蘭迪斯大學國際商學院國際商業教授,著有Remix Strategy: The Three Laws of Business Combinations, (HBR, 2015).

5. 麗塔·麥格拉斯(Rita G McGrath)哥倫比亞大學商學院教授,著有《競爭優勢的終結》(Harvard出版社, 2013).

6. 亞歷山大•奧斯特瓦德和伊夫.比紐赫( Alex Osterwalder& Yves Pigneur)兩人著有《商業模式新生代》(Wiley出版社, 2010),創造出“商業模式畫布”,被世界各地的企業廣泛使用。隨後出版了Business Model You (Wiley出版社, 2012)和Value Proposition Design( Wiley出版社, 2014).

7. 邁克爾·波特和詹姆斯·賀普曼(Michael E Porter& James E. Heppelmann)前者是哈佛商學院戰略大師,霍普曼是PTC的CEO,兩人2014年在《哈佛商業評論》上發表了深具影響力的文章《物聯網時代企業競爭戰略》

8. 馬丁·里弗斯(Martin Reeves),克努特·哈納斯( Knut Haanaes) 和賈梅詹雅·辛哈(Janmejaya Sinha)波士頓諮詢公司戰略專家,合著有《你的戰略需要戰略》

人才

隨著大家對工作態度的改變以及新生代加入勞動力大軍,現在我們面臨的挑戰是,如何更好地讓有才能的員工為公司服務,如何吸引,啟發並留住他們。對人才的研究變得前所未有的重要,而且具有重要的實用性。

2015年候選名單:

1. 托馬斯·查莫羅-普雷穆日奇(Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic)任教於倫敦大學學院,哥倫比亞大學。是一家評估公司的負責人。著有Confidence (Profile出版社, 2013)

2.羅賓·埃利( Robin Ely )哈佛商業學院教授,性別和種族問題專家。

3.克勞迪奧·費爾南德斯-阿勞斯( Claudio Fernandez-Araoz)億康先達國際諮詢公司的高級顧問。著有: It's Not the How or the What but the Who: Succeed by Surrounding Yourself with the Best, (HBR出版社, 2014).

4. 斯圖·弗里德曼(Stew Friedman )沃頓商學院實踐型教授。著有Total Leadership (HBR, 2008),Baby Bust: New Choices for Men and Women, (Wharton Digital Press出版社, 2013)和 Leading the Life You Want ,(HBR出版社, 2014).

5. 亞當·加林斯基和莫里斯·施魏策爾(Adam Galinsky& Maurice Schweitzer)他們分別是哥倫比亞和沃頓商學院的教授。合著Friend and Foe (Crown出版社, 2015),該書認為所有人類互動的基礎在於合作和競爭,關鍵在於你如何平衡兩者之間的張力。

6. 惠特尼·約翰遜(Whitney Johnson)Springboard基金的創始人及總經理,玫瑰公園顧問投資公司的創始人之一,另一位是克萊頓·克里斯坦森。著有Dare, Dream, Do(Bibliomotion出版社, 2012)以及Disrupt Yourself, (Bibliomotion出版社, 2015).

7. 道格·雷迪(Doug Ready)《哈佛商業評論》的文章作者,麻省理工 斯隆管理學院組織效能方面的高級講師。國際財團行政發展研究的創始人。

8. 澤伊內普·托恩(Zeynep Ton)MIT 斯隆管理學院經營管理部門的兼職副教授,在加該部門之前,他在哈佛商業學院工作了7年。著有The Good Jobs Strategy (New Harvest, 2014).

雷達獎

在這些新生代的商業思想家中,誰的工作最有可能塑造未來的商業模式及管理思想?以及改變我們對現有管理的看法?

上屆獲獎者:

Nilofer Merchant 和露西·馬庫斯( Lucy Marcus)

2015年候選名單:

1. 大衛·布爾庫什( David Burkus)美國奧羅爾羅伯茨大學教授,著有The Myths of Creativity (Jossey-Bass出版社, 2013).

2. 史蒂文·迪索薩(Steven D'Souza)企業學習聯盟的項目負責人,合著有Not Knowing: The Art of Turning Uncertainty into Possibility (LID出版社, 2014).這本書屢獲殊榮。

3. 艾麗卡·德旺(Erica Dhawan)曾在雷曼兄弟公司、巴克萊資本和德勤諮詢公司任職,現在是鏈接智慧(connectional intelligence)這一概念的擁護者;合著有《做大事:鏈接智慧的力量》(St Martins Press出版社, 2015).

4. 埃林·邁耶(Erin Meyer)歐洲工商管理學院教授,著有The Culture Map (Public Affairs, 2014)。在《哈佛商業評論》發表過多篇文章。

5. 珍妮佛.彼崔格里利(Jennifer Petriglieri)英士工商管理學院教授,被評為40歲以下最好的商學院教授之一。

6. 埃林·里德(Erin Reid)波士頓大學奎斯特羅姆商學院教授。 2014年在《哈佛商業評論》發表了一篇引人注目的博文《為什麼有的男人要假裝每週工作80小時》。

7. 勞倫·里韋拉(Lauren Rivera )西北大學凱洛格商學院教授,里韋拉是一名文化社會學家,她曾在摩立特諮詢公司工作過。

8. 阿魯·薩丹拉徹(ArunSundararajan)紐約大學斯特恩商學院教授,他的研究已經獲得六個最佳論文獎,而且獲得了包括雅虎,微軟,谷歌和IBM等公司的支持。

9. 阿尼班·杜塔(AnirbanDutta)印度工程科學技術學院的一名學生,因為對交通系統的研究曾獲得“未來想法青年思想家獎”( Future Ideas Young Thinker’s Award)

實踐應用

一個偉大的想法總是經得起實踐檢驗。在T50,我們十分重視那些對現實商業社會具有非凡價值的貢獻,也欽佩那些能夠接受新想法的組織。這個獎項鼓勵的是能夠把新想法變成實踐的組織。

2015年候選名單:

1.海爾集團&張瑞敏毫不留情的變革,緊密的團隊合作,摧毀組織構架的中層;以及長期的動態領導力。

2.紅帽公司&吉姆·懷特赫斯特(Jim Whiteburst)把開放源代碼運動應用到現代公司的管理。這一想法被收錄在懷特赫斯特的書The Open Organization (HBR出版社, 2015).

3.奇點大學& 彼得·迪亞曼蒂(Peter Diamandis),拉伊·庫日韋爾(Ray Kurzweil),羅伯特·理查茲(Robert Richards)智庫和教育機構的結合,衍生出更多價值。這是矽谷一家營利公司,致力於改變現有的教育模式。

4.Zipcar和羅賓·蔡斯(Robin Chase)Zipcar公司的創始人將P2P經濟運用到真正的商業社會中。

終身成就獎

T50的終身成就獎授予那些在很長一段時間裡,對全球思想領導地位作出過重要貢獻的思想家。 TA的見解挑戰了我們對管理的固有觀念。其作品必須是全球性、原創且被實踐者所認可的。

上界獲獎者:

野中鬱次郎(IkujiroNonaka)和查爾斯·漢迪(Charles Handy)

2015年的獲獎者已於10月1日公佈,是亨利·明茨伯格(Henry Mintzberg)

牛文靜|編輯

[好書推薦] Tilt: Shifting Your Strategy from Products to Customers

上個月用眼過度, 這個月決定休息一下, 改"聽"書. 使用的是Amazon的軟體Audible.

行銷(Marketing)乍看之下跟消費者的關係比較大.  但是公司能不能獲利, 行銷卻是很重要的元素之一. 尤其現在商品眾多, 要怎樣成功取得消費者青睞, 成功讓公司持續帶來金流, 更是門學問.  

"Tilt: Shifting Your Strategy from Products to Customers" 是一本講行銷/品牌的書(2014美國最佳商業書籍之一). 算是進階級行銷策略攻略指南.  作者的觀念是, 現在這個時代, 工廠有效率, 降低成本, 研發出更新的產品, 已經不是那麼重要了(因為科技的關係, 這已是大家都能做到的事). 能不能夠贏得客戶與消費者, 在這方面下功夫, 才是公司持續保持競爭力與獲取厚利的方式. 

我的行銷知識應該算是紮實了, 對於行銷相關的書, 總是可以很快地看完並吸收.  我本來以為這本書也是一樣可以很快就會聽完, 但是很多時候, 卻需要停下來思考一下. 這本書讓我對行銷的知識更統整了起來, 也可以去對一些公司的行銷策略做聯想. 我從來沒有看過一本寫行銷的書可以寫得那麼精彩---書上提到很多教科書上的知識,可是作者把那些學術理論寫得很活, 並能做相當好的連結.  比如說, 行銷學有提到evoked set的概念--也就是說, 當消費者被問起"牙膏"時, 若消費者能夠當下不靠任何暗示, 就能記起某些品牌, 那這些品牌就是在消費者的evoked set裡. 可是作者做了進一步的解釋, 說low involvement(表示消費者花在做購買決定的時間不多)的產品眾多(如牙膏, 香皂...等這些日常用品), 所以會有很多品牌被消費者想起, 這也是說, 某種品牌若是在這low involvement的產品類別裡, 競爭者就會比較多(競爭者就是那些同時被消費者想起的品牌). 那這時候這品牌該怎麼做(比如說, 在店面做point of sale的促銷), 才能成功地獲得消費者的認同與購買. 作者同時把消費者行為(consumer behavior), 消費者購買決定過程(purchase decision making process), 品牌定位(positioning), 促銷(sales promotion)等行銷知識連貫了起來, 非常過癮. 

喜歡看行銷書籍的朋友, 我超級推薦這本. 


好像沒有繁體中文版本(好像有簡體字版: 《倾斜:将你的战略从产品转移到客户》(HBR出版社,2013))


http://www.amazon.com/Tilt-Shifting-Strategy-Products-Customers/dp/1422187179/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1460230213&sr=8-1&keywords=tilt+shifting+your+strategy+from+products+to+customers

相關連結:
http://www.strategy-business.com/article/00288?gko=1f67a





2016年4月7日 星期四

[成長股回顧] 星巴克 Starbucks (SBUX)

這篇文章是昨天找資料時找到的....是晨星的分析師, 在1999對Starbucks做的分析.  文末還說Starbucks是高度投機的投資(a highly speculative investment). 

看到最後一段估值的地方. 我想, 那個分析師當年應該沒有買SBUX吧....現在兩十倍了 (from $3 to $60)....那時候SBUX的market cap是三點多billion. 算是中型股.

感覺上, 財務數字還是要搭配公司的成長策略與大環境啊.



Starbucks: Does it Make the Grade?


By Haywood Kelly, CFA | 05-24-99 | 12:00 AM | Email Article
Starbucks' SBUX stock has been on a tear. It's up 70% in the past six months, and 30% in the past month alone. The company has hinted at--you guessed it--doing more on the Internet, though exactly what it plans to do isn't clear. (It did just invest some money in Talk City, a company that hosts online chats.) But Internet hype or no, Starbucks' core business of coffee shops has been doing quite nicely. 


Is it time to jump on the Starbucks bandwagon? Let's examine how Starbucks fares in each of the four key areas that are essential to understanding a company and its stock: growth, profitability, financial health, and stock valuation. Morningstar will soon be introducing our own summary of company performance in the form of four letter grades for each stock we cover.

Growth | A
Starbucks is still very much a growth story. It's spending aggressively to open new stores throughout the United States, and has begun expanding into foreign markets like Japan. Over the past four years, the company has increased its annual sales from less than $500 million to $1.5 billion, an annualized growth rate of more than 40%. Over the past few quarters that growth has cooled a bit--to around 30%--but that's still a high growth rate.

Skeptics (including myself) underestimated the competitive advantage the company had in the coffee-store business. The market is strewn with the remains of erstwhile competitors. You can see the carnage in the stock-price graphs of Au Bon Pain ABPCA, New World Coffee NWCI, and Coffee People MOKA. Another upstart, Brothers Coffee, just agreed to sell off its assets to Procter & Gamble PG to appease creditors. It's tough to compete with Starbucks.

To see just how aggressively Starbucks is throwing cash at expansion, check out itsfree cash flow. It has averaged about negative $50 million annually over the past three years, which means Starbucks is throwing $50 million more per year into capital investment than its business is generating. And if your business model is successful, why not spend aggressively?

Profitability | B+
Though it spends money lavishly, Starbucks translates its growth into profits: It has been consistently profitable, and earnings have increased each year since 1994. We base our profitability grade, however, on returns on capital. A company can increase profits as rapidly as it wants, but what really matters are the returns it generates on the money invested in the company. Here Starbucks falls shy of the elite category. The company manages to earn 8% to 10% on its equity base each year--hardly a stellar return on shareholders' investment.

What the low return on equity (ROE) tells us is that Starbucks is growing by brute strength. It's throwing up a lot of stores and earning a decent--not spectacular--return on each. It's not a Wal-Mart WMT or a Home Depot HD, which have thrown up stores rapidly, too, but which have also earned excellent returns on the new properties-returns they can then plow back to build still more stores. In other words, their businesses can supply much more of the capital needed for expansion than Starbucks' can.

But Starbucks' returns on equity are held down by something else: The company has shunned debt as a way to boost its returns on equity. Long-term debt is almost nil. While Starbucks only ranks in the 50th percentile of its industry in terms of ROE, it lands in the top 10% of its industry in terms of returns on assets ROA. Thus the B+.

Financial Health | A
No surprise here. With almost no long-term debt, positive cash flows (if not positive cash flows after capital spending), and steady earnings growth, Starbucks is financially solid. Its financial-leverage ratio, which measures how much debt a company uses, is just 1.3. A more typical figure in the retail sector is between 2.0 and 3.0. (Wal-Mart's, for example, is 2.4.) Starbucks' financial leverage has actually been shrinking over time--another plus.

Now for the cold shower.

Valuation | D-
Ouch. As the first three grades show, Starbucks is a heck of a company. The problem is, it trades for 88 times earnings. (When I wrote about the company a few years back, it was a relative bargain at just 64 times earnings.) It gets worse. If you subtract from earnings the approximate value of the stock options Starbucks issues (a calculation done in the footnotes to its annual report), the stock trades for more like 120 times earnings.

Starbucks' price/sales ratio of 4.5 may not look too high compared with the S&P 500's level of 3.0, but for a retailer it's generous indeed: It's three times the retail-sector average. Because of their lower profit margins, retailers typically command smaller price/sales ratios.

The conclusion? Call me a fuddy-duddy, but at these levels Starbucks seems a highly speculative investment.


原文出處: 
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=761