2016年5月28日 星期六

[好文轉貼] [趨勢] Forbes: How Millennials And Immigrants Are Shaping The Fortune Of Your Favorite Alcohol

千禧世代已超越baby boomers 成為美國最大人口族群, 而美國人口結構的變化(包括墨西哥裔人口越來越多), 也對啤酒產業帶來了不小的影響. 好文一篇. 並劃了一下重點.


Forbes

Maggie McGrathForbes Staff
Got one eye on the markets, the other on Gen Y's pressing $$ issues

INVESTING  567 views

How Millennials And Immigrants Are Shaping The Fortune Of Your Favorite Alcohol


Changing demographics and evolving consumer tastes will provide a boost to Corona maker Constellation Brands. (Photo Illustration by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Changing demographics and evolving consumer tastes will provide a boost to Corona maker Constellation Brands. (Photo Illustration by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Like it or not, demographics in the U.S. are changing: Millennials have overtaken Baby Boomers as the largest generation in the country, Asian-Americans are thefastest-growing segment of the population and, by 2050, whites will no longer be in the majority. With demographic change comes evolution in consumer tastes; as cultures intermingle, they share with each other their food, their drinks and their consumption habits. And nowhere will this be more apparent than in the world of alcohol.
According to a recent analysis from RBC, few parts of the business world have experienced a shift in a consumer preferences quite like that of the beverage sector. Consumers have moved away from vodka and towards whiskey and tequila; domestic beers are “bleeding” market share to craft and imported beer; and the most expensive brands are the ones growing the fastest(品牌行銷之重要性). Yet these shifts are only the beginning of a transformation of consumer taste, argues lead analyst Nik Modi. As Millennial buying power increases and the Hispanic population in the U.S. grows, Modi writes, their consumption habits will shape the fortunes of beverage companies like Constellation Brands, Boston Beer and Brown-Forman.
In RBC’s view, the company that’s best-positioned to gain from demographic and taste evolution is Constellation, due largely to smart acquisitions the company has made over the last few years. In 2013, Constellation acquired popular Mexican beers Corona and Modelo; in 2014, it purchased Casa Noble, a tequila brand that makes its liquor with blue agave from Jalisco, Mexico. (要研究/想一下公司併購背後的原因, 是不是跟甚麼趨勢or megatrend有關)
“According to the US Census Bureau, by 2020 an estimated 18% of the US population will be Hispanic. That number has grown from 12.5% in 2000 and 16.3% in 2010,” Modi writes. “We believe this demographic tailwind will favor Constellation’s beer portfolio, [as] Hispanics reaching legal-drinking age over the next few years will likely provide an ongoing tailwind for brands like Modelo Especial and Corona.”
The numbers bear this out: there are currently 33 million Hispanic consumers of legal drinking age. By 2045, that number is expected to have increased to 47 million, an increase that would work out to an additional 1.5 million Hispanic consumers of legal drinking age each year.
Modi is careful to note that the boost to Constellation isn’t purely because Hispanic consumers will only drink Mexican beer. Rather, the word-of-mouth effect will work its magic(social media的興起更加速了word-of-mouth effect), and these consumers will set the trend for other segments of the population.
Different demographic groups are quickly adopting the traits and consumption habits of other demographic groups (人類天生具有模仿力....在味覺上也不例外?) –mainly Hispanics,” Modi says. “This trend of influence by Hispanics and multiculturals is not only bolstering the growth of Mexican import beer, but expanding the American consumer’s taste palette (more sweet, more flavor). This in turn is why innovation is so critical in the beverage category and most recently has driven a resurgence in the flavored beer category, though at the expense of cider.”
While a decline in cider consumption could negatively impact Boston Beer, the real brands that appear poised for a struggle are Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors. MillerLite, in particular, has lost 20% of its volume over the last five years, while craft beer has grown 10% to 15% over the same period.
Millennial love for imported and craft beer has been well documented, but Modi says that there’s another trend at play: an increased willingness on the part of Millennials to pay for a more “premium” beverage:
Source: RBC
Source: RBC
The skew of Millennial money towards premium alcohol could benefit both Boston Beer (which is used in the above graph as a proxy for craft beer) and, especially, Brown-Forman. Modi notes that over the last ten years, “super-premium” spirits have grown 160% while “value” spirits have grown just 9%. And Brown-Forman’s portfolio — which includes the likes of Jack Daniels, Woodford Reserve and Herradura tequila — skews super-premium, with more than 75% of Brown-Forman brands falling under the “premium” or “super-premium” categories.
There’s one area of alcohol that’s positioned to benefit from all of the above trends (Hispanic influence, preferences for premium and increased Millennial spending power): mezcal/tequila. In Modi’s view, mezcal both appeals to bourbon drinkers (it has a “smokey taste profile,” he says) and Hispanic consumers because of its Mexican authenticity. What’s more, “like bourbon, many mezcal/tequila offerings can command a superpremium price and have ‘lifestyle appeal’ playing into the premiumization theme.” (lifestyle brand....lifestyle marketing)
In other words: whoever can corner the market on mezcal will be the alcohol-maker to beat.
RBC has Constellation rated as outperform, with a $181 price target — a valuation that implies a roughly 15% upside to the stock’s current price. It has given Brown-Forman a sector-perform rating with a $109 price target (implying a 13% upside) and Boston Beer a sector-perform rating with a $172 price target (or 9% upside).

2016年5月16日 星期一

[文章轉貼] How To Find High-Return Stocks

2016年5月15日 星期日

[趨勢觀察] 廉價折扣品當道+Amazon效應, 美國的百貨&服飾零售業好難過

上週五, 美國的人口調查局(The U.S. Census Bureau)公布了不差的零售業數字: 美國4月零售銷售上升1.3%, 創一年來最大升幅 (新聞來源請按此), 但是零售業中的多家百貨公司, 不管高檔還是平價, 在這兩周發表財報, 卻是哀鴻遍野. 這篇MoneyDJ的文章寫得很仔細: 

百貨將如報業凋零?美國商場三分之一恐消失
作者 MoneyDJ | 發布日期 2016 年 05 月 15 日 


百貨業者陷入困境,繼梅西百貨(Macy’s)、Kohl’s 之後,另一零售巨擘 Nordstrom 第一季財報也極為悽慘,盤後股價狂瀉 17%。部分人士說,百貨業有如下一個報業,處境危殆,還有人預測美國購物中心有三分之一即將關門大吉。

Nordstrom 12 日美股正常盤下跌 0.44% 收在 45.23 美元,盤後暴跌 17.40%、報 37.36 美元。

CNBC、華爾街日報報導,Nordstrom 12 日盤後公布第一季財報(4 月 30 日為止),由於表現遜於預期,下修年度財測,並須下殺折扣出清庫存。過去 6 季來,Nordstrom 有 5 季獲利不如預期;過去一年股價大跌 41%。

百貨業者營運撞牆,在此之前,梅西百貨也交出 2008 年全球金融海嘯以來的最糟成績,Kohlˋs 獲利也重挫 87%。

CNBC 財經名嘴 Jim Cramer 指出,零售業一敗塗地,問題不是消費者不花錢,而且是購物方式改變。他說,梅西百貨的情況一如報業和書店,他們都發覺網路浪潮來襲,以為自身地位獨特,不會受到影響,之後才急著亡羊補牢,加入網路,卻為時過晚,慘遭擊潰。

Cramer 表示,亞馬遜手上資金比任何百貨業者都多,零售商還會資助亞馬遜,衝刺網路銷售,從這個角度看來,亞馬遜有如網路,零售商就像報業,現在網路到處都是免費新聞,大家不用花錢買報紙,報業被逼入牆角,百貨業情況也差不多。

J.Rogers Kniffen Worldwide Enterprises 執行長 Jan Kniffen 預估,美國有三分之一購物中心將走入歷史。他說,美國商場太多了,人均零售面積高居全球之冠,達 48 平方英尺。排名第二的英國,人均零售面積只有美國一半。未來幾年內,美國 1,100 家商場中有 400 家會關閉。

而早在四月底, 華爾街日報就報導了: "根據不動產研調機構 Green Street Advisors 最新發布的報告,如果美國百貨公司每平方英尺實質(經通膨因素調整後)銷售額效益要想回升至 2006 年水準、預估大約有 800 家據點得關門。" (新聞來源請按此)

**************

從上面可看出, 美國的百貨業is in deep trouble. But, who to blame? 電子商務在美國的成長快速. 講到電子商務, 第一龍頭就是Amazon了. 電子商務的興起, 也符合現代人忙碌的生活型態. 消費者可以不用時間與空間的限制, 只要有手機或是電腦, 就可以隨時在網路上購物. 話雖如此, 有些商品與服務, 畢竟還是不方便用貨運來寄送, 這也是Home Depot能夠在一片腥風血雨中穩住的原因. 這篇文章寫得很好(請按此), 以下節錄片段:

家得寶(Home Depot)則更是通路業者存活的表率,在其他通路一片營收衰退、關店、股價大跌的風潮之中,家得寶在近 10 年內不僅沒有減少分店還擴張分店數量,而淨利自 10 年前的 58 億美元提升至 2015 年的 70 億美元,股價更上漲了 230%,漲幅是標準普爾 500 指數的 3 倍強。

其產品特性是幫了一些忙,畢竟木材與石材還是得現場看看是否喜歡其紋樣、質地,或是有無瑕疵,這在網頁圖像上可不容易做到,純粹的重量也讓運送上有門檻,不容易被電子商務對手取代。但是,家得寶並非靠著這樣的「天險」保住實體通路業績,事實上,家得寶反而是自己積極推動電子商務,在 2015 財務年度,總營收 885 億美元之中,有 47 億美元來自線上,而且線上銷售的成長率相當快,較前一年同期大幅成長 10 億美元,成長幅度 26%。

總體來說,家得寶的營收的確不如 2006 年的 908 億美元高峰,但差距並不大,更重要的是獲利激增,家得寶面對電子商務的挑戰,既非抗拒,也非一味撤退,而是與迪克體育用品相同,檢討自身優勢,發展線上與實體結合的全能通路平台,展現出比純電子商務對手更強的市場競爭力。

我翻了一下Home Depot的年報, 封面的主題句就是"Interconnecting: Delivering seamless customer experience, (直譯: 串聯: 傳遞無縫的顧客體驗)" 可見Home Depot立志把公司的銷售管道整合與串聯起來, 達到上面所說的全能通路平台(omni-channel)的目標.  Omni-channel這字現在其實在美國挺紅的, 這也是零售業在追尋的理想境界.  

上面講到的產品特性也是一個重點. 如果實體零售業能提供一個Amazon無法提供給客戶的消費體驗, 那就能夠抵抗Amazon的威脅了.  Ulta也是一個很好的例子. 它店內的沙龍服務, 我想是Amazon無法提供的. 

百貨業除了受到Amazon打擊外, 也受到消費者因追求價廉物美而轉向所謂的dollar store(一元商店)或是折扣店去消費的影響-- Dollar General, Five Below, Ross Store, TJ Maxx等生意都相當不錯.  而之前服飾零售業受到快時尚的影響, Gap生意清淡, 股價大跌, 也讓青少年服飾店Aeropostles關門大吉(其實服飾零售業也受到Amazon的影響---Amazon上的衣服銷售量非常大). 百貨零售業的慘淡也有了連鎖效應--精品店Michael Kors上周股價也下跌, why? 因為Nordstrom有可能減少Michael Kors手錶類的訂單 (Michael Kors手錶有在Nordstrom銷售. 新聞請見此)--這樣的連鎖效應倒是我沒有想到的. 

消費者愛買便宜貨. 快時尚. Amazon. 這三大威脅, 讓美國的百貨零售業很難過.  話雖如此, 我還是相信, 實體零售業還是會存在,  也有其存在的必要, 不會因Amazon而完全消失, 畢竟, 還是有部分的消費者, 喜歡能夠在購買商品前, 直接感受到商品的品質與觸感. 但是百貨零售業要怎麼轉型, 或是要如何與Amazon做出一個區別, 就是一個值得深思的問題了(hello, 百貨公司, 記得甚麼是體驗經濟嗎?) 而因為Amazon而造成百貨零售業縮減人力, 這樣的效應(百貨零售業失業率提高)又會帶來甚麼影響?  就讓我們繼續看下去了. 

2016年5月9日 星期一

[讀書心得] How to Make Money in Stocks Success Stories (中譯本: 股市獲利要訣: 如何獲利)

家裡書太多, 為了納入新書, 只好把一些看過的書賣掉或是送給粉絲團的讀者. 這次要送走的是"How to Make Money in Stocks Success Stories". 在把書寄給讀者之前, 我又再次把書看了一遍, 算是做個道別.

這本書集結了很多CAN SLIM投資者的成功經驗分享(也有些許失敗的經驗) (by the way, CAN SLIM是投資成長股的一種方法.) 有初段班的投資者, 也有高段班的. 裡面有提到投資人如何運用CAN SLIM的投資法則, 也提到一些交易心法(有些CAN SLIM投資人是利用此方法來做trading). 所以這本書看起來, 頗為勵志, 也決定有機會的話, 再好好貫徹CAN SLIM--其實, 自己有將近一年沒有完全遵照CAN SLIM的方法來投資了吧. 這次有這個機會, 再把這本書看了一次, 又有了一些體悟. 這些體悟, 如果沒有碰到跟同是CAN SLIM投資前輩交流過, 也沒有經過技術面強的前輩提點, 是體會不出來的. 當初看書時, 也沒有特別注意到一些細節.

依照慣例, 這次也把一些重點筆記了下來. 下面這些, 我覺得對一般的投資人也適用:

1. The secret to winning big in the stock market is not to be right all the time but to lose the smallest amount of money when you're wrong. 

2. Holding onto a big winner is sometimes hard, and that's why you have to know everything about a stock and a company, because if you don't know much about the product, its useful place in the market, why sales may increase, or why its product or services may be in demand, the more likely you are to get shaken out of it.

3. The more you know what past winners look like, the more likely you are to spot a new winner as it is emerging in the current market.

4. Your best performing stock should be your largest holding.

5. Learning a system should be the primary goal, then the money will come. 

6. Look for a game changing stock, a company that has something really new and unique. 

7. Many of the market's biggest winners will shake you out.  You have to find a way to get back into them once you've identified them to be the leaders in the current bull market cycle. 

8. Figure out which stocks are the true market leaders and put the most amount of money into them. 

9. Shift money from your lesser performing stocks into your winners.

10. "Every stock is like a person; it has a personality. I study stocks the way I study people.  After a while, their reactions to certain circumstances become predictable"--Jesse Livermore

11. "Some stocks are steady winners; others have more volatile price swings.  Know what you're dealing with." --William O'neil


如果有讀者對投資成長股有興趣, 我會建議先看下面左邊那本書. 這本是Investor's Business Daily(簡稱IBD)報紙創辦人以及CAN SLIM投資法創辦人William O'neil的著作, 可說是投資成長股的經典.  中間那本, 是左邊那本的簡化版(非常簡化). 如果左邊那本看不懂, 可以先看中間那本. 不過我還是建議無論如何, 一定要看Mr. O'neil那本書. 至於右邊那一本(就是我這次看的), 可看可不看. 我建議等真正使用過CAN SLIM方法後再看, 體會會比較深. 

圖片來源: Amazon.com, books.com.tw

2016年5月6日 星期五

[貓的碎念] Sell in May and Go Away. Reset. Replenish. Rejuvenate.

五月份開始, 自由時間比較多了. 

五月份目標:
1. 攤開所有戶頭, 勇敢認錯. 關掉一些戶頭. 集中管理資金. 為了六月可能的升息與英國脫歐, 同時增加現金部位.
2. 整理與前輩and股友的對話紀錄, 咀嚼並內化. 
3. 看兩三本好書
4. 強迫自己養成看報的習慣
5. 調養身體

以上.

從Netflix, Costco淺談經常性收入(Recurring Revenue)

網路上可以找到不少關於Costco(COST), Netflix(NFLX)這些公司的營運分析, 不過我看了幾篇, 都沒有寫到一個重點. 這些文章都寫到, Costco有收年費, Netflix的會員也是每個月須要付費, 但這樣的營運模式到底有甚麼優點, 並能成為這些公司的優勢之一, 卻沒有提到. 

一個公司的商業經營模式對公司能否產生競爭優勢來說, 是很重要的. 一些比較受歡迎的商業經營模式有(偷懶, 我就不翻成中文了):

Razor-razorblades
The initial product is often sold at a loss or given away for free in order to drive demand for complementary goods. The company makes its money on the replacement part needed. Example: Gillette 刮鬍刀

Subscription
The subscription model has been traditionally used for (print) magazines and newspapers. Users pay for access to a product or service whether they use the product or service during the payment term or not. Example: Netflix

Pay as you go
In the pay-as-you-go business model, users pay for only the services they consume. Example: Starbucks

Freemium
The freemium (free + premium) business model provides the basic features of a product or service free of charge, but charges the user for premium services such as advanced features or add-ons. Example: Dropbox

Wholesale
The traditional model in retail is called a wholesale model. Example: Costco

Agency
In this model the producer relies on an agent or retailer to sell the product, at a predetermined percentage commission. Sometimes the producer will also control the retail price. Example: 廣告公司

Bundling
The bundling business model sells products or services for which demand is negatively correlated at a discount. Example: Microsoft (Word + Excel bundle)

Business models evolve dynamically, and we can see many combinations and permutations. Sometimes business models are tweaked to respond to disruptions in the market, efforts that can conflict with fair trade practices and may even prompt government intervention.

(出自: "Strategic Management: Concepts" by Frank Rothaermel)

其中的subscription model, 就是可以讓公司有源源不絕收入的商業模式, 而對成長公司來說, 能有固定的收入, 是件很重要的事.  根據"Finding the Next Starbucks: How to Identify the Invest in the Hot Stocks of Tomorrow"一書作者Michael Moe的觀點, "recurring revenues are the holy grail (聖杯) of predictable, visible growth." 他用了Paychex舉例, Paychex有80%的營收是來自現有的顧客, 就是一個很好的business model. 他也提到. "recurring-revenue business almost always have big premiums to their multiples because of their visibility."

另外, 美國知名商業雜誌Inc. 的CEO也寫了一篇關於recurring revenue business model的文章, 文章中, 他提到, 並非所有recurring business model都是有價值的, 因此, 他舉出了五種最佳的recurring revenue business models(這五種最佳的model又分成五種等級):

第1層級: Repeat Customers are Good
At what we'll call Level One of the pyramid is a business model based on Repeat Customers, say something like a grocery store. Having folks around the neighborhood stop by every few days to pick up their staples like milk and eggs is a great thing. By providing solid customer service, you can hope to attract those same customers on a weekly basis for years. The rub is that there is really nothing stopping your customers from stopping by a new store that opens on other side of town. Other than the possible cost of fuel, there are no switching costs for that customer. So, while having repeat customers is far better than not having them, your revenue stream remains risky because you can't count on your customers sticking with you. Many firms in this mode have build affinity programs, like frequent flyer cards to create stronger brand preference and make their offers stickier. 此種recurring revenue model的例子: 超市. 

第2層級: A Network Effect is Better
That leads us to Level Two of the pyramid, which is called Repeat Revenue with a Network Effect. What this means is that the more someone uses the company's product or service, the more each individual customer gets out of the experience--something called the network effect--which creates a barrier to that customer leaving because no other network is as good. Consider the appeal of a company like eBay. Regardless of whether you are a buyer or a seller, the more people that participate in the company's online auctions, the more valuable it becomes for you to the point that you wouldn't even consider switching to a competing offering. Can you even name a viable competitor to eBay these days? 此種recurring revenue model的例子: eBay.  

第3層級: Sequenced Product Purchases are Great Revenue
The next level up is Level Three: the Sequential Revenue Model. The idea behind this approach is to create recurring income by encouraging your customers to consistently upgrade to new product and service offerings. Consider the example of a company like Constant Contact, which starts customers out on a basic plan that costs $10 month. As you begin to use the system more, you can then upgrade if you like, spending an additional $5 a month to get unlimited image storage or the ability to input a larger number of contacts. In other words, the more you use the system, and the more valuable it becomes to you, the more you're willing to pay. This model also works where companies may offer a free service as a way to attract new customers, something known as a "freemium" model. DropBox, for example, has both a free service and a premium service where customers can access advanced features. Even if the company can convert just a fraction of its customers over to the premium service, it can create an extremely valuable recurring revenue stream. 此種recurring revenue model的例子: Dropbox.

第4層級: Good Until Cancelled Revenue is Really Great
Level Four of the pyramid is called Good Until Cancelled Recurring Revenue, where you find examples like insurance agencies or your cable company. What makes this model powerful is when it's based on an "opt-out" model where the customer has to terminate your relationship with them. Think about when you sign up for your auto insurance policy: You agree to pay a certain amount of money every month until you cancel, which makes for a fine source of recurring revenue. You actually have to make an effort to stop using the insurance. Credit card or bank account billing, where the customer pays their bill automatically, is an extremely powerful way of keeping customers over the long haul.此種recurring revenue model的例子: 保險公司. 

第5層級(最高級): Contractual Recurring Revenue is the Best
Level Five, the highest level of the pyramid, is Recurring Revenue with a Contract. Think about the contract you signed when you got your new cell phone. Not only did you agree to pay a certain amount of money each month depending on the plan you selected, you also agreed to keep paying for something like two years. Sure, you can change your phone provider, but this time it will cost you, say, a $175 switching fee. That makes changing a little more painful for you as a customer, which, in turn, makes for a better business model. The phone company also runs promotions where it offers you a discounted new phone every year or so. Of course, there's a catch: You need to sign a new two-year contract to take advantage of the offer. Again, this is an extremely valuable model because you can predict with a higher level of certainty what your recurring revenues will be both in the short-term, as well as over the longer term. 此種recurring revenue model的例子: 電話公司(因為顧客被綁約, 每個月又要繳費).
(原文出處: http://www.inc.com/jim-schleckser/not-all-revenue-is-equal-the-5-best-kinds-of-recurring-revenue.html)


所以, Costco, Netflix如果從recurring revenue的business model角度上來看, 是相當成功的. 在我看來, 它們應該算是Inc. CEO提到的第四種層級的recurring revenue model.  雖然平均下來, 每個會員要繳的月費只有一點點, 但"涓涓細流匯大海", 這也讓公司的營收在某種程度上有其預測性(predictability.)

除了Costco, Netflix之外, 美國還有哪些上市公司也是用這種方式呢?  Amazon (Prime會員制度),  Salesforce.com (業務軟體公司), AT&T, Verizon (電信公司),  Paypal (行動支付商), Starbucks等, 都是我目前能夠想到的公司.  如果公司的產品使用週期短, 那再搭配上recurring revenue這business model, 是不是會更讚呢(比如說, 大家常去逛超市, 買民生必需品; 大家常去買咖啡, 因為習慣的問題).