2017年8月7日 星期一

心法 from Mark Minervini's "Think & Trade Like a Champion" 之導言

看書看多了, 加上有了股市實做的經驗後, 讓我對投資/操作其實有不少的心得. 但是, 我好像從來沒有寫過關於心法的文章. 一來, 想法太多, 讓我不知道該怎麼寫起, 二來是覺得心法會隨著投資人的投資習慣或是周期而有不同的解讀方式, 怕寫了其實不適用於每一個投資人. 所以我除了在聊天室隨意發表一些看法外, 實在是不太敢獻醜地洋洋灑灑發表一些文章來寫自己的心得.

上星期收到了Mark Minervini的新書(他是"超級績效: 金融怪傑交易之道"這本書的作者), 卻因為還在埋首於"Thinking, Fast and Slow(快思慢想)"中, 所以耐著性子先把他的書暫放一邊. 不過看了原文的心理學鉅作後, 腦袋實在需要休息&轉換一下, 所以決定翻翻Minervini的新書(註).

這本書跟第一段提到的心法有甚麼關係呢? 我其實很欣賞Minervini對投資/操作上的一些觀念, 他的心法(下面提到的)也讓我了解怎麼去克服一直在我心中的心魔. 這本書目前並沒有中譯本, 所以我先寫一下我在導言處看到不錯的心法段落. 之後每個章節若還有看到自己受用的心法, 會再依主題做整理並分享出來.

而雖然Minervini是個trader, 但是我覺得他的觀念可通用在其他的投資方式上(這也是我覺得值得寫出來的地方). 把下面文中的trading字樣換成investing, 也是很合理的.
  • If you want to trade like a champion, you need to think like one. (有點像是要自我催眠, 告訴自己做的到. 這樣的觀念我其實在別的交易書籍裡也有看過)
  • The key to winning at anything is having a belief in your own abilities, and align your belief system with your actions. I can assure you that you will never reach your full potential until you learn to act in sync with what you believe.......To be super successful, your actions must be aligned with your beliefs. Congruency(一致性) is the goal. (要對一種投資法則有信念, 並以身力行, 才有成功的可能) 
  • Odds that you won't be good at value investing, growth investing, swing trading, and day trading.  If you try to do them all, you will most likely end up a mediocre jack-of-all-trades.  To reap the benefits of one strategy, you have to sacrifice the others.  You will enjoy market cycles when your trading style outperforms other styles.  But you won't overcome less favorable phases by adopting a different style each time you run into difficulty.  To become great at anything, you must be focused and specialize; you must avoid what's known as "style drift." (沒有人能夠同時精通很多種的投資方式; 選定一種方式, 犧牲其他的方法, 然後不斷地專心鑽研. 若是常常換來換去(就是作者所謂的style drift), 吃虧的是自己.)
  • Style drift comes from not clearly defined your strategy and goals. As a result, you won't stay with your approach through thick and thin. If you are a short-term trader, you must recognize that selling a stock for a quick profit only to watch it go on to double in price is of no real concern to you.  You operate in a particular zone of a stock's price continuum, and someone else may operate in a totally different area of the curve.  Both can be successful! 
  • If you wait for the perfect time or when you think you have all the answers, you may never get started. It's better to do something imperfectly than to do nothing flawlessly. You can dream, you can think positively, you can plan and set goals, but unless you act, nothing will materialize. (我非常喜歡這句話. 這也是我之前犯的錯誤---怕做錯, 就不敢行動. 但是, 你不去行動, 又怎麼能夠獲利呢? 即使是賠錢了, 也學到一個無價的經驗. 這點跟Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos提到的觀念有些契合: Second, most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure.)
  • Moving outside your comfort zone doesn't mean taking on big risks.  It means you will have to stretch yourself and do things that, at first, may feel unnatural or counter-intuitive.  Fortunately, you don't have to jump from the safe and familiar directly to what feel completely impossible, as if you dove off the cliffs at Acapulco while you were still learning to swim.  It's a process of gaining proficiency--and comfort--along the way, expanding your comfort zone. 跳脫舒適圈, 並求在投資上有長進, 不是一下子就可以達成的事情. 我之前有時候也會太過於急躁, 想要馬上就把一些投資的觀念或是技巧學好, 但常常忘記, it takes time. 剛好在看這書的時候, 跟精通交易的股友分享了書中的另一個觀念, 在他的一串回應中, 有部分也跟這段有不謀而合之處: "慢慢來吧 。心態成長急不得 ,一天成長一點 ,一兩年後會很可觀 。"
  • You can't jump from ring 1 to ring 4, though; you need to put in the necessary time and effort to gain competence and confidence. If you rush without building a foundation of skills and experiences, you'll invite disaster. 
  • As Ralph Waldo Emerson said, "The mind, once stretched by a new idea, never returns to its original dimensions." In the same way, as you successfully expand beyond your previous limitations, you won't have to desire or need to go back to the small place of your own original thinking.  Looking back, you will be pleasantly surprised by how much you've grown and matured in your trading.  What has seemed so difficult, even impossible, is now well within your reach and part of your new, expanded comfort zone. With practice and discipline, this new, expanded level of competency becomes axiomatic to the point of being second nature.  This is how mastery is built one step at a time. 

(註)如果讀者是投資中小型的成長股, 我其實很推薦Minervini的書. 不過書中有太多關於技術面的東西, 常常讓我看的很頭痛, 筆記也需要記一堆(因為會記不住). 不例外的, 這本書又讓我畫了很多重點(會不會用到又是另外一回事了). 

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