2019年12月31日 星期二

[2019閱讀書單]

2019前半年都在準備CFA level 1, 所以沒看甚麼書. 

2019年12月28日 星期六

[平台經濟] "Platform Capitalism" 一書重點摘要


這本書很薄, 加上之前看過了相關的書, 就覺得這本書中的重點沒那麼多好記錄的了......

[平台經濟] “Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms” 一書重點摘要


平台經濟(platform economy)聽起來好像是個當代的產物.  雖然經濟學家從1970年代開始對平台經濟認真做起了研究但其實這種經濟模式的運作已經有幾百年甚至幾千年的歷史了呢很不可思議嗎? Not really.

2019年12月20日 星期五

Morningstar: 10 Wide Moat Stocks of the Year


我喜歡買大型股, 覺得抱起來很心安, 在研究上花的時間也比較少(CP值很高). 但我也喜歡研究中小型股, 喜歡看著他們成長&磨練自己挑股的功力&長知識. 所以我取得的平衡就是, 把戶頭分幾個, 然後某些專買大型股, 某些專買中小型股. 

2019年12月17日 星期二

軟體產業歷史 (from "Secrets of Software Success")

這段歷史, 值得留下&做分享. 不過只記錄到20年前. 

"Secrets of Software Success"一書 重點整理 (軟體產業)

科技將來會觸及到所有的產業中(就如同書上寫的"software is increasingly becoming one of the key enablers of other industries), 所以如果要拓展能力圈, 那考慮軟體業似乎是必要的了. 

這次看了麥肯錫在20年前出的, 關於如何在軟體業成功的書"Secrets of Software Success", 學到了很多. 也很慶幸自己選股時, 也有把重點放在管理階層上, 才有好成果(Microsoft, Adobe.)  

雖然是20年前的書, 但我想有些產業文化與大方向還是沒變的, 還是值得一看. 以下是重點整理(有些章節跳過沒看). 

2019年12月13日 星期五

[Barron's] UP AND DOWN WALL STREET 12.13.2019

Christmas came early for the stock market, as many of investors’ wishes for greater clarity in a highly uncertain world were granted.

2019年12月12日 星期四

"Confessions of a Street Addict" 裡, 關於1987黑色星期一的描述

這幾段寫的挺好, 也有些重點可以觀察. 

附上一則新聞: 

復盤1987年美國股災:崩盤前夜發生了什麼?


"Confessions of a Street Addict"一書中的精采摘要

喜歡投資, 原因之一是一路走來, 遇見了很多聰明的前輩與股友. 跟他們交流&學習, 是件很過癮的事情, 而透過這種刺激, 也覺得alive(有活著), 也會期許自己能越來越聰明&越有智慧.

Jim Cramer就是一位聰明的前輩. 哈佛法學院, 後來進入高盛, 聰明的他, 靠著投資累積了財富, 所以他的書當然要拜讀一下.


他並不是一般投資人眼中的大師, 但看他的書, 卻能夠補足那些大師級書中所沒有的實戰經驗

這本"Confessions of a Street Addict"(簡體字版本翻"一個華爾街癮君子的自白". 此書並沒有繁體中文版), 是他早期的作品, 可以看到他早年的投資風格. 他對華爾街的詭譎多變爾虞我詐, 也有精彩的描述. 我是把這本當小說在看.  

以下是"Confessions of a Street Addict"一書中的精采摘要. 

"Confessions of a Street Addict" 裡面很有感的幾段

太懶了. 就直接用照相的方式來分享. Will history repeat itself? Of course. 


2019年12月6日 星期五

Barron's UP AND DOWN WALL STREET 12.06.2019: Stocks Jump on Strong Job Gains, Easing Worries About a Trade-Induced Recession

There are weeks in which whole market cycles seem to take place, to paraphrase Lenin. And after what appeared at the time to be a steep slide at the beginning of the week, stocks reversed and rallied vigorously in the final two days to wind up not far from where they had ended the previous Friday.
While equities reeled early in the week, President Donald Trump declared, “I don’t watch the stock market,” contrary to his many tweets touting records set by the major indexes since he has been in the White House. “Jobs are what I watch,” he added, quite presciently, as it turned out, when the Department of Labor on Friday morning delivered boffo employment numbers for November.
Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 266,000, nearly 100,000 more than economists had forecast, and there were upward revisions totaling 41,000 for the previous two months.
Returning General Motors (ticker: GM) strikers accounted for 46,000 of November’s gain. The headline unemployment rate ticked down a tenth, to 3.5%, the result of a rather tepid 83,000 increase in the separate survey of households and a smaller, 40,000 rise in the labor force.
The labor-force participation rate among prime-age workers (those 25 to 54 years old) remained at a 10-year high, notes Cornerstone Macro, and that has kept wage inflation in check, with average hourly earnings rising at about a 3% annual rate, despite the jobless rate falling back to the 53-year low previously touched in September.
Prime-age workers, however, lagged behind in finding jobs, according to TLR on the Economy, accounting for 37% of employment gains in the past year, far short of their 64% share of the population. Meanwhile, age and treachery (as playwright David Mamet once put it) beat out youth and exuberance again, as workers over 55 accounted for 50% of the job gains in the past year, twice their share of the population, another example of the divide seen across demographic groups that could play out in the political season.
For markets, the jobs data dispelled worries about a trade-war-induced recession. At the start of the week, the hostilities escalated with levies on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina because of the depreciation of their currencies. And Trump said that he could wait until after next year’s elections to finish the phase-one trade deal with China.
But the talks reportedly were still on later in the week. Not that this skinny pact would mean that much, but bulls hope the talks would stave off the more important matter of 15% tariffs on $160 billion of Chinese goods, set to take effect on Dec. 15. Remember that the stock market’s current run took off after Trump said on Oct. 11 that only some details needed to be finalized for the phase-one deal to be concluded.
On that date, the Federal Reserve also announced its program to provide increased liquidity to the economy via repurchase agreements and Treasury bill purchases. While the Fed insists that this isn’t quantitative easing, the extra liquidity certainly has helped fuel the 7% advance in S&P 500 index since then. Some observers liken these injections to those made ahead of Y2K. Of course, none of the much-ballyhooed effects on computers of the year-end 1999 calendar turnover materialized, but some observers hypothesized then that the Fed helped pump up the dot-com bubble with its extra liquidity.
No further moves are likely when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Indeed, odds favor the central bank’s federal-funds target range holding at the current 1.50% to 1.75% through at least the first half of next year, if not all of 2020. That could be confirmed by the FOMC’s dot-plot graph of committee members’ guesses for the coming year. The most recent projections, released after the Sept. 17-18 gathering, still had a median projection of fed-funds hikes by 2020’s end.
“Markets are still pricing in one final 25-basis-point cut sometime next year, but our guess is that signs of a pickup in economic growth early next year will take that possibility off the table,” writes Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics. The bigger point is that interest-rate hikes also are unlikely, even if growth surprises to the upside, especially in an election year, notwithstanding Fed officials’ insistence that politics don’t matter, he adds. A lack of rate increases wouldn’t displease Wall Street or the White House, however.
Source:

2019年11月26日 星期二

[投資日誌11.26.2019] DOCU 默默地創新高

這隻雖然不能算是自己挑的, 但也算是自己選來做研究, 所以挺有成就感. 

Is it possible that you keep growing? Can you be an oak tree? Let's see. 

2019年11月25日 星期一

[Barron's] Worried About a Bear Market? Bonds Pose More Danger Than Stocks. 11.25.2019

這篇比較難, 看不太懂. 不過還是先留著.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
As good as the year has been for the stock market, it’s arguably been even better for bonds. That’s the good news for fixed-income securities investors. The bad news is that they face a risk of reversal perhaps as great, if not greater, than equities do. But history suggests that stocks should be able to ride out a backup in the bond market.
The drop in long-term yields has driven bonds’ robust performance. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note’s yield is down to 1.76% from 3.04% 12 months ago, while the 30-year bond’s has fallen to 2.23% from 3.31% over that span. For the long end of the market, that’s translated into strong price gains, as exemplified by the 24.50% total return from the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ticker: TLT) over the past 12 months, which topped the 19.42% from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), according to fund tracker Morningstar.
But as bond investors have enjoyed those sparkling returns, they have taken on a lot of duration risk, says Mark Vaselkiv, the chief investment officer for fixed income at T. Rowe Price. Duration describes a bond’s price sensitivity to changes in yields; longer durations mean bigger swings and thus greater risk. That worked in investors’ favor in the past year, as yields fell. But a rebound in yields could inflict “a fair amount of pain” on those who have piled into longer-term high-grade securities, he notes.
Indeed, bond investors should be prepared for a “baby bear market” in 2020, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. They look for a rise in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield of about 50 basis points (one-half of a percentage point), to 2.25%. For the 10-year note, that would translate into a price loss of about 4%—more than twice its annual interest income. For a 30-year bond, the price drop would be about 10% for the same 50-basis-point rise in its yield.
Part of the reason for the decline in yields over the past year has been the long-term fall in the term premium—the extra inducement that bond investors require to lock in their investments over extended periods. For instance, if the 10-year note yielded 2.5% and investors expected short-term rates to average 2% over the next 10 years, the term premium would be 50 basis points.
The term premium has been negative the past few years, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s estimates. In fact, it is now the most negative since the data series began in 1961, Torsten Slok, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Securities, points out.
A normalization of the current term premium could raise the 10-year Treasury’s yield back to 2.50%, writes Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan. And such a normalization occurred in the mid-1990s, after the Fed also lowered short-term rates three times as a “mid-course” adjustment.
Goldman’s strategists similarly cite the history of the Fed’s 1995-96 and 1998 mid-cycle adjustments in predicting a rise in the depressed term premium. A year after the 1995-96 cuts, they observe, the 10-year yield had risen by 90 basis points; a year after the 1998 cuts, it had increased by 150. And while the Fed has signaled that it expects to keep its short-term federal-funds target rate unchanged after last month’s third 25-basis-point cut, to 1.50%-1.75%, Goldman says that history indicates that, once bond yields turn higher, the market begins to price in rate hikes by the central bank.
Such a move could be painful. J.P. Morgan’s Panigirtzoglou estimates that investors’ allocations to bonds are at historic highs and well above their post-financial-crisis averages. At the same time, the bank’s calculation is that a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.50% would lower the fair value for the S&P 500 index by just 2.4%, from its current estimate of fair value of 3355, which is 8% higher than Thursday’s close.
The Treasury note’s price would slide by about 6%, or twice as much as the S&P 500 in that scenario, which is why our colleague Andrew Bary contended that Treasury bonds are now riskier than stocks in this space a few months ago. Moreover, given their low yields, which don’t have much room to fall further, bonds are unlikely to provide as strong a hedge to stock-market declines as in past cycles, argues Adam Levine, investment director for pensions at Aberdeen Standard Investments.
That doesn’t mean there is no place for bonds to hedge a portfolio—only that the bonds used for this purpose should be municipals, which also could provide some protection against higher taxes should Elizabeth Warren become the next president. That’s the view of John R. Mousseau, president, CEO, and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors.
In addition to her proposal for the ultrarich to kick in “two cents” in a wealth tax, the Massachusetts senator has called for higher marginal income-tax rates. What the top rate, now 37%, would be depends as much on the makeup of Congress as on who wins the White House. But Mousseau expects that it would be higher than the 39.6% under President Barack Obama. He also notes that there’s already a 3.8% Medicare tax on investment income for families whose yearly modified adjusted gross income exceeds $250,000.
All of which would make the tax-exempt income from munis more valuable, and thus boost these bonds’ prices. For those in the current top 37% bracket, a 2.33% tax-free yield (which prevailed when these calculations were made) on a 30-year AAA muni is equivalent to a 3.70% taxable yield. If the top income-tax rate goes to 42%, the payout would be equivalent to a 4.02% taxable yield. As the market adjusts to that higher taxable-equivalent yield, Mousseau estimates the bond’s price would increase by 7.16%.
Of course, long munis would be hurt, along with Treasuries, if their yields were also to rise. But tax-free bonds at least would provide some hedge.
Link:

[Barron's] UP AND DOWN WALL STREET 11.25.2019

已劃重點.

2019年11月7日 星期四

高速成長雲端股, according to Jim Cramer, 還未跌完......


2019年11月4日 星期一

[11.01.2019] Treat the pullback in homebuilder stocks as an opportunity to ‘pounce,’ Jim Cramer says

  • 最近的房地產還是很熱. 今天跟一位做appraiser的媽媽聊天, 她說好忙, 暑假忙到還必須推掉幾個案子. "The market is crazy." "This is a seller's market." she said. 

2019年11月1日 星期五

[Barron's] UP AND DOWN WALL STREET 11.01.2019

The Best Stock Market Ever Heads Into Stocks’ Best Time of the Year 
By 
Nov. 1, 2019 9:33 pm ET

Fall back? Those who crave an extra hour’s sleep welcome turning back the clocks to standard time this weekend. For others, darkness falling when the clock strikes an hour earlier is depressing (except if it means that cocktails will be served sooner).
For the stock market, it’s more about springing forward as it enters what’s historically the best six months of the year, with the major averages already at or close to historic highs. And that’s with a trade war hitting global commerce and an impeachment drama hanging over the nation’s capital. That’s even without a looming U.S. election, which is all but certain to be hugely divisive, both at the presidential and the congressional level. Call it prosperity without comity.

The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite closed at records on Friday, up 1.5% and 1.7% this past week, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% but landed 0.04% short of its record. Looking at the performance through the year’s first 10 months, the S&P posted a total return (including dividends) of 23.16%; the Nasdaq, 26.06%; and the Dow, 18.19%. The year-to-date numbers are flattered by timing because the risk markets (equity and speculative-grade debt) bottomed around the end of 2018. On a 12-month basis, the S&P’s return is substantially lower, but still impressive, at 14.22%, along with the Nasdaq’s 14.77% and the Dow’s 10.32%.

That’s a product of an economy and earnings that are growing moderately, along with a shift in monetary policy that’s now pushing forward, rather than pulling back. Interest rates have come down, with the Federal Reserve this past week reducing its policy rates for the third time in 2019, while the dollar has fallen 2% from its peak at the end of September. That’s not only a plus for U.S. exporters, but for emerging markets, which have made 47 interest rate cuts of their own in the past year, according to Evercore ISI’s count.
If there’s a fly in the ointment (and there always is), it’s that so much of the market’s gains and aggregate value have been concentrated in megacap technology stocks, such as Apple (ticker: AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL)—a total of $4 trillion, or more than all of the Russell 2000 small-cap index. That said, breadth—the number of advancing stocks versus decliners—on the New York Stock Exchange also is at a peak, indicating relatively broad participation in the major indexes’ march to record highs.

The markets stand at these exalted levels as they head into their strongest seasonal period, based on history, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The advisory’s technical indicators actually marked Oct. 11 as the start of that season this year (the date happened to coincide with the Fed’s announcement that it would alleviate the liquidity tightness in the money markets by purchasing Treasury bills).
Economic fundamentals also are positive for the market, as represented by the October employment report released on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 last month, much more than the 85,000 economists had forecast after adjusting for the strike at General Motors (GM). Automotive payrolls were off by 42,000 in October, while government employment fell by 3,000, owing to a reduction of 20,000 temporary census workers. Moreover, the two preceding months’ tallies were revised up by a total of 94,000. The unemployment rate did tick up, to 3.6% in October from the half-century low of 3.5% touched in September, but that also was a sign of strength, reflecting a continued surge of people entering the labor force.

On the political front, the House of Representatives voted for a formal impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump. While polls find the public split pretty much down the middle on impeachment, the folks at Renaissance Macro observe that in the 1990s a strong economy during the Bill Clinton impeachment provided the backdrop for that decade’s bull market. Plus, the Fed then also made “insurance” cuts in its rates to sustain the expansion in the absence of inflation pressures, as is the case now.

Past isn’t always prologue, but the current situation—notably an elongated expansion backed by a friendly Fed, played out against a contentious political backdrop—suggests parallels with the 1990s. One difference is the recent culling of some egregious excesses, such as the crash and burning of WeWork, before they reached the public markets.
RenMac suggests bringing back the ’90s grunge group Nirvana. Smells like bullish spirit.

2019年10月28日 星期一

我的第一篇SaaS分析文: Docusign(DOCU)

考試時解悶的作品. 終於在考完試後完成了. 歡迎批評指教. 也歡迎提問.

也謝謝股友幫忙製作財務數字的圖表.

2019年10月27日 星期日

[投資日誌 10.25.2019] "妳進步超快"

今天前輩說這句話時, 我知道她應該不是在說客套話. 不過不太清楚她指的是我投資上的進步, 還是對社群的看法上的進步.

2019年10月18日 星期五

賭馬 vs. 挑股

在啃Barron's, 啃年報, 寫分析, 啃報告之間, 終於把Cramer的"Confessions of a Street Addict"看完了. 真的是相當精彩又生動的書, 也讓我更了解華爾街的黑暗面. 當然, 也從字裡行間跟Cramer學了很多小撇步(之後會整理出來). 很可惜這本沒有中文繁體版(有簡體字版"一個華爾街癮君子的自白".) 

[投資日誌 10.18.2019] Jim Cramer: Brutal Week for the Cloud Kings

期待暴風過去, 能夠再度優雅地進場.

2019年10月15日 星期二

Growth investing. Case study 1. Fund manager of T.Rowe Price Capital Appreciation

看Barron's跟念書一樣, 需要很大的毅力. 而跟教科書不一樣的是, 裡面有很多歷史資訊與實戰經驗, 所以需要做不少的筆記. 通常一整份Barron's周刊, 若僅挑有興趣的看(總經, 大盤, 個股分析, etc.), 也還是會花上不少時間. 希望上手後, 適應的時間會漸漸縮短.

2019年10月14日 星期一

[Barron's] Up & Down Wall Street 10.14.2019

覺得這專欄挺好看的, 也讓我學到了很多總經的看法與知識. 希望今後有動力, 每周將此專欄貼在這邊, 也算是一個美股回顧與紀錄.

2019年10月12日 星期六

考CFA level1所教我的人生道理

拖了兩個月, 才有心情把這篇文完成, 想必是潛意識裡對備考的那段日子不太想去回想吧. 不過把這文完成, 也算對那段日子做個closure.

2019年10月10日 星期四

[Baron's] A New Way to Rank the Risks of the Big Tech Stocks

2019年10月5日 星期六

Disney CEO Bob Iger 關於管理, 領導, 以及事業心的經驗分享

在往返Marquette的路上, 把這本書聽完了. 這幾年, 除了在投資外, 學到最多的也是管理(在上面其實受到很多很大的挫折(可說是不堪回首).) 真的是, 沒有人是天生的領導者.

這是從Disney CEO的新書中整理出來的內容. 

2019年10月4日 星期五

[Barron's] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts Alone Can’t Prevent a Recession

寫的挺好的, 將這段時間的總經做了很好的整理.

********************************

Recession fears are rising, and investors are looking for a white knight.
That usually means the Fed, whose domain is interest rates—or monetary policy. Yet that is one only side of the stimulus equation. The other is fiscal policy—public spending—which is controlled by the federal government. The Fed can’t do it alone this time, so investors need to watch Washington as closely as they watch the central bankers.
The weak ISM manufacturing data at the beginning of October sparked a stock selloff resulting in the worst two-day start to a quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008.
Cue the Fed. Before the manufacturing data, investors thought another rate cut by the central bank was a coin toss. Now the odds of a rate cut are almost 80%. For investors who craved more economic stimulus, the data was so bad, it was good.
For its part, the Fed recently flipped from being hawkish (trying to slow an overheating economy) to dovish (trying to stimulate growth). Interest rates started rising in 2015, and the Fed didn’t stop squeezing borrowers until July. “They overdid it,” T. Rowe Price fixed-income manager Steve Bartolini, who believes Fed interest rate policy was too tight for too long, tells Barron’s. “The fingerprints of that decision are evident in the repo market,” he adds, referring to the short-term borrowing market.
“There wasn’t enough cash out there, that’s why repo rates spiked,” Bartolini explains. Easing pressure on short-term borrowers is a good thing, but it’s not enough, he says: “We also need fiscal stimulus.”
President Trump’s signature accomplishment—2017’s tax reform—qualifies as fiscal stimulus. And by many measures, it worked. S&P 500 companies grew earnings by more than 20% in 2018, much faster than in recent history. Companies added almost 2.7 million jobs in 2018, more than in 2015 or 2016. What’s more, gross-domestic-product growth accelerated and manufacturing activity grew at rates not seen since 2004.
Yet the U.S.-China trade war has become a fiscal drag. The Trump administration argues it’s trying to win better terms for U.S. businesses, but the impact of higher tariffs shows up in places like the PMI number.
“Beginning in the fall of 2018, it had become clear that global trade disputes were adversely affecting manufacturing,” said FedEx CEO Fred Smith on the company’s fiscal-first-quarter call. FedEx (FDX) reports results earlier than most, making them a bellwether for business conditions.
“Global trade remains the most significant issue, as demonstrated by the contraction in new export orders that began in July 2019,” said Timothy Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management, or ISM, which surveys 800 business across 18 industries to derive the PMI figure.
Stocks tend to rise in the fourth quarter, according to Barron’s calculations, when investors start looking at the year ahead. “Recessions are rare events,” Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel, told Barron’s. It’s more likely than not the economy will be growing when investors trade 2019 earnings estimates for 2020 numbers.
This year, to keep stocks afloat, lower rates are needed, but so is action on the fiscal front, such as infrastructure spending. But a bipartisan package to improve bridges and tunnel may be too much to ask for. Investors will settle for a trade deal.

[技術分析] Stitch Fix (SFIX)

這周發表財報. 

2019年10月1日 星期二

[轉貼] The good news is the same as the bad news: This market looks just like 1998

A yield curve inversion? International weakness triggering a broad manufacturing slowdown? A potentially overconfident consumer and a Federal Reserve caught up in a brief interest-rate cutting cycle, regardless of steady GDP growth? And, of course, an impeachment inquiry.
Does this sound like a recipe for a strong fourth-quarter rally?

2019年9月23日 星期一

[投資日誌 09.22.2019] 近來的想法

這是我最近的想法. 剛剛看到這篇文章, 跟我想的一樣.
https://boards.fool.com/beating-the-market-34300452.aspx

2019年9月13日 星期五

[投資日誌 09.13.2019] 中秋節照常度日之技術分析: Zscaler (ZS). Fibonacci numbers (費波那西數列)

2019年9月10日 星期二

[投資日誌: 09.10.2019] 技術面分析: CyberArk(CYBR)

多頭是一底比一底高. 前面的低點是123.55,  123左右. 七月中的長紅被破了, 就要減碼.

看不懂嗎? 歡迎交流討論:)

心得: 基本面再好, 估值再低的成長股, 也會被殺得那麼慘. 最近資安產業得併購風好盛行. 好想撿一點CYBR, 賭它被併購. 

2019年8月28日 星期三

[投資日誌 08.28.2019] Recession?

撇掉Trump跟trade war, 最近新聞最常見的字眼, 除了bond之外, 應該就是recession了. 昨天好奇用了Google Trend, 不過不知道這圖有沒有甚麼意義就是(keyword: "recession")

2019年8月27日 星期二

From Barrons 08.27.2019: Stocks Are Going Down. It’s Time to Play Defense, Strategist Says.

Wall Street strategists don’t have it easy these days. Skirmishes in the U.S.-China trade war keep gnawing at the market, making it tough to stick with a year-end target.


2019年8月24日 星期六

[投資日誌 08.24.12019] Lou Simpson.......we are related

昨天翻雜誌, 看到了這篇文章, 發現原來跟GEICO的前首席投資官盧·辛普森(Lou Simpson)有這樣一層的關係.......

[讀書心得與重點摘要] 算股高手的驚人財富翻倍術

這本書是我一直想要入手的書--因為想要看看, 在台灣同樣是投資成長股的高手, 有甚麼可以讓我學習的地方. 所以上次回台灣就抓了這本.

2019年8月23日 星期五

[讀書心得與重點摘要] 如何看懂一支股票的題材與故事(更新)

這本是我兩年前回台灣時帶回來的. 第一次看時, 覺得很簡單, 沒甚麼. 但後來再次翻起, 覺得有些"看懂"了作者想要表達的意思. 這個夏天, 又因故拿出來再看了一次, 覺得更有感受了.

這本書對於做趨勢&成長股的投資人來說, 非常值得一讀. 書中兩位投資人的方法其實有點對比作用(一個是散戶, 一個是基金經理人), 但都有可取的地方. 我也建議可以的話, 直接買下這本書, 因為對我來說, 有太多可以思考的地方. 而我紀錄下的重點, 也未必會跟他人相同.  

尤其作者在"找到適合自己的投資方式"這部分著墨了不少. 這我很少在投資書中有看到作者寫了這麼多(而這點卻是很多投資人容易忽略的一點). 


非常喜歡這本書. 以下把重點依照我認為的主題做了分類, 也增加了一些之前沒領悟到的重點. 

2019年8月17日 星期六

[如何有效念書?] [讀書心得與重點摘要] Learn Like Einstein: Memorize More, Read Faster, Focus Better, and Master Anything with Ease

之前準備考試前, 為了能夠讓自己記住很多的知識, 還特別去找了如何有效念書的書.

這是我看了"Learn Like Einstein: Memorize More, Read Faster, Focus Better, and Master Anything with Ease"這本書後, 做的筆記. 希望對即將考試的讀者有幫助.  另外, 再推薦一次Flora這app, 運用的就是文中所提的番茄工作法.


2019年8月13日 星期二

CFA level 1 (第一級) 應考心得. 之一.

關於我考過CFA level 1這件事, 在聊天室造成一股對CFA的討論, 實在讓我很意外. 我也因此知道了CFA在台灣的威力. 

興趣沒有目的地

前陣子, R分享了這個影片給我, 說看到這影片, 第一個想到的就是我.


2019年8月3日 星期六

如何找尋insight?

之前跟股友討論, 該如何從個股中找到insight(洞察), 看出個股股價(即將)上漲or開始轉折的背後原因, 以至於可以早點入場, 真是讓我像撞牆一樣, 無法有個頭緒. 不過經過漫長地自我摸索與觀察後, 我倒是有了些心得(這我之後會另外整理成一篇文). 

2019年8月2日 星期五

VIX 歷年來每月表現 Seasonal Performance by Months

如果沒錯的話, VIX看的是大盤的波動. 下圖由股友提供. 

Sell in May and go away. Come back in September? 

關於財報數據公布, 要關注的重點有兩項

截圖是從"看新聞, 買飆股"這本書來的(懶得做筆記了). 寫得很好. 留下來, 以便以後提醒自己. 

"看新聞, 買飆股" 重點整理

想自己的投資方式, 會需要做大量的閱讀,  所以這次回台灣, 看到了這本書的書名, 就抓了起來.  

2019年7月31日 星期三

2019年6月27日 星期四

Sweet Dreams 甜美的噩夢

這是最近常在廣播裡聽到的歌曲......歌詞挺有意思. 最近發生了一些事情, 讓我聽了也很有感觸.

2019年6月1日 星期六

經濟學. The Supply and Demand for Money.

自學經濟學, 而且是準備大考, 很辛苦, 尤其有些邏輯不是很好懂, 但常有柳暗花明又一村的感覺.

CFA level 1的經濟學一共有7個章節. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy"應該是我念起來最有感的一章.

2019年5月26日 星期日

A conversation with mentor on Steve Mendel's strategy

C: 請問一下. 要怎麼訓練, 才會有這樣的insight呢?

(好文轉貼) 高手是怎樣煉成的? 《羅輯思維》

風險是透過練習, 磨練, 來做控制的. 做一項看似危險的事情, 在不專業的人眼中, 或是由不專業的人來做, 的確很危險(如外科手術). 但是如果經過了訓練, 在做這件事的時候, 是已經將風險計算過後, 才會出手. 由外科醫生來開刀, 會危險嗎?

這篇文章是由一位甚少分享文章的交易高手所分享的. 由他分享, 一定得拜讀, 體會一下.

2019年5月16日 星期四

30 days to the exam. Can I handle it?

Someone told me that preparing (or taking?) the CFA exam is like a marathon. It tests your stamina as well as tenacity.

I am in the process of reviewing the material now. To be honest, at this point, I don't know if I can handle the exam.

2019年5月3日 星期五

五月. 雜想. Another milestone. 300 hours of studying. Goal: 400.

看了一本書說, CFA level 1考生, 平均要花300小時準備, 而這只是低消. 300小時的均值, 也包含了沒考過的考生. 所以, 一定要把bar設高一點. 

2019年4月24日 星期三

做偵探. Caterpillar(CAT)開拓重工.

昨天曬太多太陽, 結果這兩天頭痛(朋友說, 是因為身體不適應一下子吸收太多的陽光, 所以失調了. 她也是如此), 書也念不太下去, 就來寫一下毛毛蟲好了.

2019年4月21日 星期日

關於成長股, 一段相當好的話. From "超級績效:金融怪傑交易之道"

最近看到越來越多投資人接觸了成長股, 甚至是超級成長股(super growth stocks). 一方面感到欣喜, 另一方面也覺得很多人可能不知道風險何在. 

2019年4月16日 星期二

[轉貼] 標題: [心得] test520之初級勝率論

test520算是台灣投資界的神人. 他也是投資中小型成長股.  真希望有一天能夠請教他一些問題. 

覺得寫得挺好, 所以轉貼過來.  謝謝股友分享.  我把自己看到的重點用粗體字標示. 


2019年4月1日 星期一

2019年2月3日 星期日

我為什麼將canslim做了調整?

看到這篇文章, 又想起了一些往事. 剛好前幾天一位股友問我, 為什麼現在不依照canslim了. 以下是我的回答(因為這是我當初想要成立成長美股研究社團的主因之一, 所以我也同時分享給了社團的團員).