2019年10月28日 星期一

我的第一篇SaaS分析文: Docusign(DOCU)

考試時解悶的作品. 終於在考完試後完成了. 歡迎批評指教. 也歡迎提問.

也謝謝股友幫忙製作財務數字的圖表.

2019年10月27日 星期日

[投資日誌 10.25.2019] "妳進步超快"

今天前輩說這句話時, 我知道她應該不是在說客套話. 不過不太清楚她指的是我投資上的進步, 還是對社群的看法上的進步.

2019年10月18日 星期五

賭馬 vs. 挑股

在啃Barron's, 啃年報, 寫分析, 啃報告之間, 終於把Cramer的"Confessions of a Street Addict"看完了. 真的是相當精彩又生動的書, 也讓我更了解華爾街的黑暗面. 當然, 也從字裡行間跟Cramer學了很多小撇步(之後會整理出來). 很可惜這本沒有中文繁體版(有簡體字版"一個華爾街癮君子的自白".) 

[投資日誌 10.18.2019] Jim Cramer: Brutal Week for the Cloud Kings

期待暴風過去, 能夠再度優雅地進場.

2019年10月15日 星期二

Growth investing. Case study 1. Fund manager of T.Rowe Price Capital Appreciation

看Barron's跟念書一樣, 需要很大的毅力. 而跟教科書不一樣的是, 裡面有很多歷史資訊與實戰經驗, 所以需要做不少的筆記. 通常一整份Barron's周刊, 若僅挑有興趣的看(總經, 大盤, 個股分析, etc.), 也還是會花上不少時間. 希望上手後, 適應的時間會漸漸縮短.

2019年10月14日 星期一

[Barron's] Up & Down Wall Street 10.14.2019

覺得這專欄挺好看的, 也讓我學到了很多總經的看法與知識. 希望今後有動力, 每周將此專欄貼在這邊, 也算是一個美股回顧與紀錄.

2019年10月12日 星期六

考CFA level1所教我的人生道理

拖了兩個月, 才有心情把這篇文完成, 想必是潛意識裡對備考的那段日子不太想去回想吧. 不過把這文完成, 也算對那段日子做個closure.

2019年10月10日 星期四

[Baron's] A New Way to Rank the Risks of the Big Tech Stocks

2019年10月5日 星期六

Disney CEO Bob Iger 關於管理, 領導, 以及事業心的經驗分享

在往返Marquette的路上, 把這本書聽完了. 這幾年, 除了在投資外, 學到最多的也是管理(在上面其實受到很多很大的挫折(可說是不堪回首).) 真的是, 沒有人是天生的領導者.

這是從Disney CEO的新書中整理出來的內容. 

2019年10月4日 星期五

[Barron's] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts Alone Can’t Prevent a Recession

寫的挺好的, 將這段時間的總經做了很好的整理.

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Recession fears are rising, and investors are looking for a white knight.
That usually means the Fed, whose domain is interest rates—or monetary policy. Yet that is one only side of the stimulus equation. The other is fiscal policy—public spending—which is controlled by the federal government. The Fed can’t do it alone this time, so investors need to watch Washington as closely as they watch the central bankers.
The weak ISM manufacturing data at the beginning of October sparked a stock selloff resulting in the worst two-day start to a quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008.
Cue the Fed. Before the manufacturing data, investors thought another rate cut by the central bank was a coin toss. Now the odds of a rate cut are almost 80%. For investors who craved more economic stimulus, the data was so bad, it was good.
For its part, the Fed recently flipped from being hawkish (trying to slow an overheating economy) to dovish (trying to stimulate growth). Interest rates started rising in 2015, and the Fed didn’t stop squeezing borrowers until July. “They overdid it,” T. Rowe Price fixed-income manager Steve Bartolini, who believes Fed interest rate policy was too tight for too long, tells Barron’s. “The fingerprints of that decision are evident in the repo market,” he adds, referring to the short-term borrowing market.
“There wasn’t enough cash out there, that’s why repo rates spiked,” Bartolini explains. Easing pressure on short-term borrowers is a good thing, but it’s not enough, he says: “We also need fiscal stimulus.”
President Trump’s signature accomplishment—2017’s tax reform—qualifies as fiscal stimulus. And by many measures, it worked. S&P 500 companies grew earnings by more than 20% in 2018, much faster than in recent history. Companies added almost 2.7 million jobs in 2018, more than in 2015 or 2016. What’s more, gross-domestic-product growth accelerated and manufacturing activity grew at rates not seen since 2004.
Yet the U.S.-China trade war has become a fiscal drag. The Trump administration argues it’s trying to win better terms for U.S. businesses, but the impact of higher tariffs shows up in places like the PMI number.
“Beginning in the fall of 2018, it had become clear that global trade disputes were adversely affecting manufacturing,” said FedEx CEO Fred Smith on the company’s fiscal-first-quarter call. FedEx (FDX) reports results earlier than most, making them a bellwether for business conditions.
“Global trade remains the most significant issue, as demonstrated by the contraction in new export orders that began in July 2019,” said Timothy Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management, or ISM, which surveys 800 business across 18 industries to derive the PMI figure.
Stocks tend to rise in the fourth quarter, according to Barron’s calculations, when investors start looking at the year ahead. “Recessions are rare events,” Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel, told Barron’s. It’s more likely than not the economy will be growing when investors trade 2019 earnings estimates for 2020 numbers.
This year, to keep stocks afloat, lower rates are needed, but so is action on the fiscal front, such as infrastructure spending. But a bipartisan package to improve bridges and tunnel may be too much to ask for. Investors will settle for a trade deal.

[技術分析] Stitch Fix (SFIX)

這周發表財報. 

2019年10月1日 星期二

[轉貼] The good news is the same as the bad news: This market looks just like 1998

A yield curve inversion? International weakness triggering a broad manufacturing slowdown? A potentially overconfident consumer and a Federal Reserve caught up in a brief interest-rate cutting cycle, regardless of steady GDP growth? And, of course, an impeachment inquiry.
Does this sound like a recipe for a strong fourth-quarter rally?