2021年4月22日 星期四

本周做的功課與閱讀

P.S. 我做的功課, 其實中文的新聞也多少會有報導. 不習慣閱讀英文的讀者, 可以用Google Translator, 或是搭配華語新聞來看. 下面也算是我將自己的功課所做的整理&紀錄, 所以有些沒有時效性; 文章也是綜合了很多市場人士的想法, 不一定正確. 所以還是要自己再做功課. 
本周的想法: Now good new is bad news. 
  • 關於油價
    • That won’t always be the case, however. Rather than watching yields, investors should keep an eye on the price of oil, according to Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, who points to the connection between oil prices and the reopening trade
      • When oil prices ripped from less than $30 a barrel in April 2020 to their high of $68 on March 8, 2021, economically sensitive sectors followed suit. But when oil tumbled to $59 on April 13, they faltered.
      • Now, oil is picking up steam again, and if it continues to rise, cyclical stocks should, too. “In many ways, the path of oil could be a key determinant to the leadership of markets over the next few months,” Lee explains.
  • 關於inflation
    • Dealing with an Inflation Head Fake (by Pimco)
    • These inflation fears are likely to grow over the next several months as economic activity normalizes, and prices normalize along with it. The headline consumer price index, or CPI, inflation may likely increase to 3.5% year over year in May, which would be the fastest pace in 10 years, while core PCE is expected to reach 2.3%, which would be the fastest pace in 13 years. 
      • But it would be premature to read too much into these inflationary readings. Over the next several months, we will likely witness a multimonth price-level adjustment, which may feel like a shift higher in inflation. However, over the second half of 2021, as the economy further normalizes, subsequent growth in economic activity and prices will likely moderate and bring the inflation rate back down to trend.
  • 關於interest rate
    • Given this remarkable growth backdrop, we find it increasingly difficult to believe that the Federal Reserve will wait until 2024 before raising interest rates. Our house view is currently for a second-quarter 2023 move. But with inflation almost certainly hitting 4% in May and likely to stay above 3% for most of the next 12 months on demand/supply imbalances and a greater housing contribution to the consumer price index, we see the risks increasingly skewed toward a December 2022 rate hike.
  • 關於ISM
    • Investors who bought the S&P 500 when the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index was above 60 — signaling peak growth, the strategists say — saw median returns of -1% in the next month and just 3% over the following year. In March, the ISM manufacturing index clocked in at 65(出處)
  • 股市要繼續漲的幾個催化劑:
    • President Biden’s $4 trillion infrastructure bill would have to pass without big hikes to corporate and capital-gains taxes to finance it. 
    • The pandemic would have to be a nonissue by summer. 
    • Inflation would have to be minimal, limiting pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. 
    • Earnings estimates would have to rise, and valuations remain high.
    • Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, is a believer. “That scenario is entirely possible, and if it comes to fruition, then we should expect the S&P 500 to trade into the mid-4,000s, or maybe higher,” he wrote in a note predicting a 4,500 S&P by year end. 
      • At that level, the index would reflect expectations for aggregate earnings per share of $200 for S&P 500 companies, assuming valuations don’t change relative to anticipated profits. Aggregate EPS of $200 is Wall Street’s consensus for 2022.
    • Of course, lots could go awry. Centrist Democrats in Congress could curb the infrastructure bill. Interest rates could keep rising even without higher inflation because 10-year Treasury yields remain below expected inflation rates. Bigger yields on Treasury debt would make bonds more appealing relative to stocks, weighing on valuations. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t buy stocks, but it might make sense to do it later, rather than sooner.
  • 關於lumber:
    • “There are too many trees right now,” says Mark Wilde, who covers lumber for BMO Capital Markets. He doesn’t mean native forests, but rather trees planted for lumber. See, a little over a third of lumber goes for home building, and U.S. housing starts have been below trend for a decade and a half. Then, early in the pandemic, lumber yards stopped ordering from sawmills. “No one wanted to be sitting on inventory,” Wilde says. But they misjudged the lockdown. “You’ve got a lot of people sitting at home and getting stimulus checks, so do-it-yourself demand has been strong,” the analyst points out. 
      • Cat的解讀: 以後木材會有過剩的情況
  • 小型股與公債殖利率的關係
    • The peaking in bond yields around mid-March has coincided with the underperformance of smaller stocks, as David Rosenberg, head of the eponymously named Rosenberg Research, pointed out in a Thursday research report. He noted that, since the S&P 600 small-cap index set a record March 12, it had declined by 5%, while the large-cap S&P 500 had climbed by 5%—a difference of 10 percentage points.
    • The underperformance by small-caps and weakness in cyclical sectors constitute “a pretty decisive risk-off signal beneath the surface as the S&P 500 continues to make all-time highs,” Rosenberg concludes.
  • 投資idea
    • What’s more, despite the recent rally, small-caps remain cheaper than their larger peers. The discount further widened last month as the group experienced some pullback. Active managers can be more selective in terms of valuation. 
    • Cyclical sectors like financials, energy, and industrials have been leading the small-cap market over the past few months, but still remain the most discounted group compared with large-cap counterparts. 
    • Sector rotation: 還是看到有人提這幾個類股:
      • "We see the potential for a continued rotation in the market toward cyclicals, value stocks, small-caps, and international."
    • 4 Electric-Vehicle Charging Stocks at Fire-Sale Prices
    • Pet Care Is Booming. Here’s a Stock to Play It.
    • Coming Back to Disney
    • Barron’s Stock Pick: Buy O’Reilly Stock Because Americans Are Driving Again. (Cat: 最近新車因為晶片的問題, 產能出了問題. 看車零件(auto parts)連鎖店應該合理, 因為車齡會拉長, 造成零件耗損)
      • Overall, Americans spent 8% more on motor vehicles and parts in the past 12 months—after accounting for inflation—than in the 12 months prior, even though U.S. auto makers produced 12% less.
  • 推薦的Podcast: Morgan Stanley Thoughts on the Market: 
    • 本周有Mike Wilson對於市場的看法: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-wilson(有文字檔(Transcript)可看)

Source: Barron's, 網路(已嵌入連結)

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