2021年5月7日 星期五

本周做的功課與閱讀

P.S. 我做的功課, 其實中文的新聞也多少會有報導. 不習慣閱讀英文的讀者, 可以用Google Translator, 或是搭配華語新聞來看. 下面也算是我將自己的功課所做的整理&紀錄, 所以有些沒有時效性; 文章也是綜合了很多市場人士的想法, 不一定正確. 所以還是要自己再做功課. 
這周Barron's的內容還好, 所以沒做甚麼筆記. 
  • 市場焦點
    • “The market is now focusing on the next steps, especially on policy. The next step will be to see how the Fed shifts its monetary policy outlook.”
    • In fact, DataTrek’s Colas sees the reopening trade lasting through May and June before investors start to worry about whether the Fed will announce the plans to start reducing bond purchases at its Jackson Hole, Wyo., meeting in August.
  • 財報表現(from WSJ)
    • About 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported first-quarter results through Thursday morning, posting a 50% growth in profits from the same period a year earlier, according to FactSet. Analysts say the solid results highlight the breadth of the economic recovery, while also giving investors a new reason to buy stocks despite concerns of elevated valuations.
    • Still, some analyst say there are signs the rally that began last March is beginning to flag. Despite the massive profit growth and high number of surprises to the upside, just 57% of companies that reported results so far have seen shares subsequently rise, according to FactSet. Besides that, tech stocks, the engine behind 2020’s rally, remain highly volatile as the Nasdaq is on course to notch its first monthly decline since October.
  • Large-cap, small-cap財報後的類股表現
    • It’s not just the smaller companies that are holding their own. Small-cap stocks appear to be responding better to earnings than big ones, notes Christopher Harvey, U.S. equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities. Large-caps have outperformed by just 0.06 percentage point when beating earnings, while 51% have underperformed even when they have topped forecasts. Small-caps, on the other hand, have outperformed by 0.77 point when beating earnings.
    • ....All this suggests that investors were looking to add some risk this past week—and that maybe the reopening trade might suddenly revive enough for one last push.
  • Here’s What Biden’s Corporate Tax Plan Means for Investors
    • Businesses that generate most of their value from intangible assets such as software and pharmaceutical patents—and have therefore had the easiest time shifting profits to avoid the IRS—would be hit hardest. Other sectors that have had less success shielding their profits from taxes, such as telecoms, retailers, and banks, could stand to benefit on a relative basis. In fact, they might not lose out at all, especially if the proposed increase in the headline tax rate is whittled down to 25% or less to protect other provisions.
    • There are many reasons to fix glitches in the global corporate tax regime. The good news for investors, at least in U.S.-focused companies such as Comcast (CMCSA), Target (TGT), and Wells Fargo (WFC), is that most of the Biden proposal would have zero impact on their tax bills. By contrast, many leading tech and pharma companies would face a substantial increase in their tax obligations, even if America’s statutory corporate tax rate remained unchanged.
  • 投資idea
    • Why Steel Stocks Are Due for a Fall
    • Yet the market still has a concentration problem. The S&P 500’s five largest stocks make up 21.6% of the index, down from 23.9% at their peak, but still far bigger than the 18.1% reached at the height of the dot-com bubble. At the same time, the smallest 300 stocks make up just 16.2% of the index, a sign they might have more room to run to get back to previous peaks. That could make the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 a good bet—even if it has gained 34% since Aug. 31.
    • GOP lawmakers have said they think it might be possible to reach a bipartisan agreement on a more limited package focused on roads, bridges and other elements of physical infrastructure.(文章出處)
  • 投資觀念(From: These ETFs Have Become Too Popular. Why That Could Be a Problem)
    • The huge inflows have significantly boosted the funds’ stake in some smaller, thinly traded holdings—a situation that could be problematic if investor sentiment suddenly reverses and the funds need to exit those thinly traded shares. 
    • A broader index, however, inevitably causes a fund to deviate from its initial investment theme. The iShares Clean Energy ETF, for example, has loosened its criteria to include more small stocks and companies that only generate part of their revenue from clean energy. Investors who don’t pay attention to these changes might end up holding a fund that’s no longer what they think it is. A revised index also makes a fund’s performance history even less indicative of its future, but most people won’t realize this, says Ben Johnson, director of global ETF research for Morningstar.
  • Americans Can’t Get Enough of the Stock Market Households increased stockholdings to 41% of their total financial assets in April
    • Retail clients at Bank of America Corp. have bought stocks for nine consecutive weeks, while hedge funds and other big investors have recently fled the stock market, analysts at the bank said in an April 27 note.
    • Many individual investors haven’t been deterred by the market’s swoons. Data from research firm Vanda Research show that individual investors tend to buy more shares when the S&P 500 is down 1% on the day than when it is up by the same amount, and that their resolve to buy during selloffs has strengthened during the pandemic. Some have even borrowed to amplify their stock-market bets.
    • “Retail investors have made a lot of money on many things including equities over the past year. At some point, given how high their equity allocation is, the risk is they decide to get out and take profits,” said Mr. Panigirtzoglou, a managing director at JPMorgan. “That is effectively what happened before in 2000.”

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