2021年5月13日 星期四

本周做的功課與閱讀

 P.S. 我做的功課, 其實中文的新聞也多少會有報導. 不習慣閱讀英文的讀者, 可以用Google Translator, 或是搭配華語新聞來看. 下面也算是我將自己的功課所做的整理&紀錄, 所以有些沒有時效性; 文章也是綜合了很多市場人士的想法, 不一定正確. 所以還是要自己再做功課. 

  • Value vs. Growth
    • How’s that, you ask? Despite the payrolls shocker, the economy still looks set to expand strongly over the next couple of years, and that’s all value stocks need to beat growth. Since 1979, the U.S. economy has grown, on average, by 2.5% per quarter year over year, says Lori Calvasina, chief U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets. When gross-domestic-product growth has been below that level, growth stocks outperform, largely because they can continue growing even when there’s little growth to be had. When GDP growth is above 2.5%, however, value stocks outperform.
    • With GDP set to increase by 6.4% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, value’s run may only be getting started. “The stage is set for value to keep outperforming,” Calvasina says.
    • Economic growth is already filtering its way into expectations for earnings growth. The companies in the Russell 1000 Growth index are expected to grow earnings per share at a 24% clip over the next 12 months, according to Christopher Harvey, U.S. equity strategist at Wells Fargo Securities, while the ones in the Russell 1000 Value index are expected to grow earnings by 28%. It’s the first time in about a decade that value is expected to offer more growth than growth.
    • Yet growth stocks are still priced as if they’re the ones leading the race. The Russell 1000 Growth index was trading at 30 times forward earnings this past Thursday, a 56% premium to the Russell 1000 Value index’s 19.2 times, near a 20-year high, Harvey notes. Paying that kind of a premium might make sense if growth stocks were, you know, expected to grow faster than value. Not anymore.
    • “When growth is abundant, you don’t pay a premium for it,” Harvey says. Jobs disappointment or no jobs disappointment.
  • 投資idea:
    • How the Green Economy Will Be a Gold Mine for Copper
    • Longer term, the change in the investment landscape which I have been writing about is the secular change coming about in interest rates and inflation, both of which are trending steadily higher. This is contrary to the environment of the past 40 years when both were trending lower. This change has over the past year been put into overdrive as a result of the policies put into place stemming from the pandemic, as the money supply grows at an historically unprecedented rate, the supply chain of both goods and services is disrupted by the global economic shutdown, labor shortages continue as workers are paid more to stay at home than to work, the economy slowly reopens, and consumers begin spending again. These factors are all coinciding to create an environment for higher inflation, which translates into higher interest rates, both of which, if they persist, are a long-term negative for the economy and financial markets. They are, however, a decided positive for commodities and hard-asset sectors of the economy and market, such as industrials, agriculture, metals and mining, materials stocks, and the like. (by The Sovereign Advisor)
    • Zillow estimates that more than 1 in 10 Americans have moved during the pandemic and that about eight million existing homeowners may enter the real estate market, with nearly 9% of consumers planning to purchase a home over the next six months, a level near a 20-year high. As this “great reshuffling” unfolds, Zillow’s portfolio of technology-enabled real estate offerings addresses the full spectrum of consumer needs and moves the company closer to becoming the central real estate transaction platform. This should drive significant long-term shareholder value creation. We maintain our $220 price target, based on about eight times our 2022 revenue estimate. 可以研究Tractor Supply(TSCO)這家公司. 
    • The outline of the plan so far is focused on roads, bridges, and transportation infrastructure expenditure. Thus, building-material companies are anticipated to benefit the most, with accompanying sectors to participate in the spending multiplier. Not only are government funds likely to propel the opportunities in this space, but private funds are on standby and seeking opportunities. We therefore identify the Global X US Infrastructure ETF [ticker: PAVE] as the vehicle to express the infrastructure investment theme. It bodes superior metrics such as positive betas to upticks and downturns in the S&P 500, as well as a hedge to interest-rate rises, in addition to trading at a discount to the market’s valuation.
    • Tesla
      • Investors are looking for the next catalyst. Bulls hope for more U.S. EV purchase incentives. Tesla’s driver-assistance feature—called Autopilot—could also be cleared in the Texas crash that generated bad PR recently. Those will help balance out recent concerns over emission credits, which Tesla earns for producing more than its fair share of zero-emission vehicles, after Stellantis (STLA) announced it would purchase fewer of them from Tesla.
    • 6 Agricultural Stocks Poised to Ride Food Prices Higher
      • Investors shouldn’t fret. Normally, agricultural commodity prices are driven by supply, not demand, as is the case with most other commodities. Demand for food is usually very stable, but supply can fluctuate widely with the weather.
      • This time may be different. Supply is growing. But there is a new source of demand. China is importing vast amounts of corn, some 32 million metric tons in 2020 and 2021, almost as much as the country imported during the previous 20 years.
      • China’s population is eating more meat, which means more corn and soy for animal feed. That should give investors confidence commodity prices can remain elevated for the next couple of years. If that’s the case, ag stocks don’t look all that expensive. Deere (DE) and Corteva trade for about 21 times estimated 2021 earnings, in line with the S&P 500AGCO (AGCO) and FMC trade at 16 and 15 times estimated 2022 earnings, respectively. Fertilizer producers Mosaic (MOS) and Nutrien (NTR) trade at 19 and 15 times, respectively.
    • Barron’s Is Launching a New Way to Track the Modern Economy. Introducing the Barron’s Future Focus Stock Index.

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