2021年5月19日 星期三

本周做的功課與閱讀

P.S. 我做的功課, 其實中文的新聞也多少會有報導. 不習慣閱讀英文的讀者, 可以用Google Translator, 或是搭配華語新聞來看. 下面也算是我將自己的功課所做的整理&紀錄, 所以有些沒有時效性; 文章也是綜合了很多市場人士的想法, 不一定正確. 所以還是要自己再做功課. 

  • 關於大盤
    • Still, more volatility doesn’t mean that stocks are headed for a bear market, even if there are corrections along the way. The reason: Global earnings are expected to grow at a 36% clip this year, an astounding rate, but not one that is uncommon for this stage of a bull market, says Citigroup equity strategist Robert Buckland.
    • The stock market typically has a very good year when earnings are growing by 25% or more; the MSCI All World index posted positive returns in 2010 and 2004. If history repeats, 2021 should turn out OK—even if investors need to start worrying about 2022, when earnings growth starts to slow. “This year, earnings are enough to get us through,” Buckland says.
    • Jim Cramer bets stocks will gain from the collapse in crypto, speculative assets
  • 關於通膨
    • 這期封面的主題是通膨. 專文是: Inflation Is Here and Hotter Than It Looks. Why It’s Time to Worry.
      • As millions remain out of work and as economic growth remains reliant on extraordinary monetary and fiscal support, the Fed’s concerns about the recovery are well founded. If the Fed is right that the U.S. economy is still weak enough to warrant near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing, while wrong that pricing pressures are temporary, investors are looking at the threat of stagflation. Longer term, some investors and economists warn of a so-called debt jubilee, effectively a default through hyperinflation, and the risk of the U.S. losing its reserve-currency status.
        Policy makers are walking a fine line. The costs of not getting it exactly right are high, already affecting bottom lines, wallets, and investment returns, while threatening to unleash economic forces not seen in generations.
    • Indeed, the inflation worries that have lifted bond yields will limit the upside for risky assets, such as stocks. That, in turn, will weigh on prices of economically sensitive commodities, such as metals, especially as the easing of lockdowns loosens supply constraints, the advisory writes. Tightening credit in China could further weigh on red-hot industrial metals, while India’s Covid-19 wave also slows demand.
    • The main spur to inflation, actual and expected, has been the extraordinary U.S. fiscal stimulus, effectively underwritten by the Federal Reserve’s ultraeasy monetary policy. But after the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan that gave most Americans $1,400 in free money, the outlook for the Biden administration’s wish list of over $4 trillion in further spending is increasingly iffy.
    • The odds for a major tax hike also are worsening, which would be good news for the financial markets, according to Greg Valliere, chief U.S. strategist for AGF Investments. Moreover, a “bipartisan deal is in sight on an infrastructure bill,” he writes in a client note. The president could “grudgingly accept something slightly north of $1 trillion,” less than his $2.3 trillion plan, but far more than Republicans’ $568 billion proposal, with no new taxes. Biden appears to be channeling Ronald Reagan, Valliere adds, accepting what he can get before coming back for more. Maybe he can win this one for the Gipper.
  • 關於高成長股與估值
    • From: Everyone Is Leaving Home. These Stay-at-Home Stocks Could Still Be Buys.
      • But the valuations! Oh my, they got out of hand. In the past few weeks, some analysts have begun reducing price targets to reflect “valuation compression”—a nice way of confessing that they were drinking the Kool-Aid. You could dip a toe into stocks like DocuSign (off 30% from the highs), Okta (off 23%), Datadog (down 35%), or even Snowflake (down 51%). But a safer play is to buy the bigger (and cheaper) public cloud plays: Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet (GOOGL).

      • That’s true even for the highflying growth stocks that have been getting hit so hard recently—as long as they have earnings. Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, notes that following large growth selloffs, S&P 500 growth stocks with both free cash flow and expanding margins tend to outperform in the months ahead. That means favoring stocks like ServiceNow (ticker: NOW) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) over shares of Chegg (CHGG) and Twitter (TWTR). “Buy some growth stocks on the selloff, but they have to have positive free cash flow and margin expansion,” Parker says.
  • 關於ARK ETF
    • The rotation into value stocks has bruised many, if not all, of the 58 stocks in Wood’s ETF portfolio. Its top holdings include Tesla, Teladoc Health (TDOC), Roku (ROKU), Square (SQ), Shopify (SHOP), Zoom Video Communications (ZM), Zillow Group (Z), Spotify Technology (SPOT), Coinbase Global (COIN), and Twilio (TWLO). The companies envision a world even more sleekly digital than the one we’re in now.
    • There’s a certain smugness to the critical stories that seem to be almost everywhere about Wood. Yet the problems are very real. The ETF has declined 36% from its peak in mid-February and looks as if it could test its late-October low of about $88, despite some unusual strength that was exhibited during this week’s market rout.
  • 投資idea
    • Inflation Is Here. Four Ways to Hedge Your Investments.
      • Scarcity gets a premium price when inflation kicks in, says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. With goods such as luxury watches, demand tends to rise as prices do—the so-called Veblen effect.
    • The $436 million Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries (ticker: INFL), an active fund launched in January, invests in companies that have a lot of hard assets and business models that are less reliant on capital and labor input. “It’s easy to focus on how revenue benefits [from inflation], but we want firms with lower sensitivity to the cost side,” says portfolio manager James Davolos. “That means they don’t need to spend a lot of money to earn a lot of money.”
      • The fund has heavy exposure to the materials and energy sectors, but also owns many financial-services stocks, particularly exchanges and brokerage firms. Many of its 36 holdings generate revenue from land, royalties, or operating platforms that have been in place for decades. These firms usually have less debt, can easily scale their business, and maintain profit margins even in an inflationary environment, says Davolos. Despite its short history, the fund has gained 17.4% since inception, versus an 8% return for the S&P 500 index over the same span.
      • 其他抗通膨的ETF(NURE, XLRE, IVOL, TIP, PFIX)細節可見此
    • May 14: GLD [SPDR Gold Shares] and IAU [ iShares Gold Trust ] are the two largest of the gold bullion exchange-traded notes (ETNs). Not surprisingly, investors like to push money into them and pull money out as gold prices rise and fall. The real fun comes when investors don’t follow that model.
      Gold prices are back up to above $1,800 an ounce after bottoming below $1,700. But the total combined assets invested into GLD and IAU have barely budged from the recent lows. That is a bullish development for gold prices, because it means that “the crowd” hasn’t yet gotten in on the rebound. They aren’t yet believing in it. They should be piling in to chase the gold rally, and they are still hanging back.
      And that implies there is more yet to come for the gold-price rally. Once we reach the point at which these two ETNs’ assets are rising rapidly along with gold prices, we can say that “the crowd” is finally starting to join in. And if we were to see gold prices leveling off but the assets in GLD and IAU continuing to rise, that would be the sign that the uptrend has gone on too long and a reversal is coming.
    • Why Rising Inflation Will Continue to Boost Lumber, Copper, and Steel Prices

    • 早在二月初的時候, 就想到晶片短缺, 受惠的會是二手車. Barron's這周有篇相關的文章 (不過後來想了一下. 其實二手車也會有supply shortage的問題(目前各家上市公司的庫存約為兩個月左右). 所以如果有人真想從這次的事件中獲利, 看車零件公司的勝算可能會比較大. 輪胎公司也可以考慮. 橡膠也是原物料題材. 

  • 這篇寫的挺好, 是訪問BofA的 Head of Global Research. What’s Next for Wall Street’s Investment Research
    • The ability to look for the next big trend is absolutely critical. About three years ago, we argued that supply chains would go from global to local. During the pandemic, it started happening much faster, but those long-term trends were in place. The independent assessment of a company’s prospects continues to be a very important function. You’re seeing a renaissance in the number of initial public offerings. Having great analysts on the deals who understand the company and its prospects is very important to companies. Analysts are intimately involved in assessing the prospects of new companies, and they’re looking at those prospects through the investor lens.

Source: Barron's

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