2021年5月27日 星期四

本周做的功課與閱讀

P.S. 我做的功課, 其實中文的新聞也多少會有報導. 不習慣閱讀英文的讀者, 可以用Google Translator, 或是搭配華語新聞來看. 下面也算是我將自己的功課所做的整理&紀錄, 所以有些沒有時效性; 文章也是綜合了很多市場人士的想法, 不一定正確. 所以還是要自己再做功課. 

  • 關於大盤
    • For now, that’s led to a market that really doesn’t seem to want to go anywhere—or at least hasn’t decided which way it wants to go just yet. “There’s a loss of momentum despite the oversold bounce,” says Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. “I wouldn’t be too quick to jump on board.”
    • At least not yet. While investors continue to worry about peak growth and a more hawkish Fed, neither looks set to change right now. Growth continues to look just fine—the latest GDPNow reading out of the Atlanta Fed points to 10.1% growth during the second quarter—even if the recent data disappointed. “We therefore stay in cyclicals and value stocks, despite the chatter that peaks should require more defensive portfolio rotations,” writes J.P. Morgan strategist John Normand.
    • But they don’t have to be U.S. stocks. Remember, the S&P 500 has nearly half of its weighting toward tech, communication services, and consumer-discretionary stocks, and just 27% in energy, materials, banks, and industrials. That could put a damper on future gains if investors continue to dial back their exposure to growthier sectors.
    • Instead, investors might be better off looking abroad, where the indexes are more exposed to the cyclical sectors of the market, says Michael Shaoul, CEO at Marketfield Asset Management. He recommends looking at the United Kingdom, where about half the index is made up of those economically sensitive sectors.
    • “It’s a cyclically driven market now,” Shaoul says. We’re just investing in it. 
  • 關於通膨
    • From: Inflation Forces Investors to Scramble for Solutions
      • The challenge facing investors was apparent this month when new data showed a surprisingly large jump in consumer prices. Rather than rise, a collection of assets generally thought to safeguard investors against inflation fell after the report.
      • This week, investors will gain greater insight into the inflation picture when the Commerce Department updates the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption-expenditures price index. They will also track earnings from the likes of Dollar General Corp. , Costco Wholesale Corp. and Salesforce.com Inc.
      • The three asset classes have vacillated since, but their initial moves showed the unexpected ways that markets can behave when inflation is rising, especially when many are already expensive by historical measures.
      • The price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury inflation-protected security logged its biggest one-day decline in a month. Shares of real-estate investment trusts slid the most since January. Commodities were generally flat but dropped the following day.
      • From early 1973 through last December, stocks have delivered positive inflation-adjusted returns in 90% of rolling 12-month periods that occurred when inflation—as measured by the consumer-price index—was below 3% and rising, according to research by Sean Markowicz, a strategist at Schroders, the U.K. asset-management firm. But that fell to only 48% of the periods when inflation was above 3% and rising.
      • By comparison, the S&P GSCI Commodity Total Return Index delivered positive inflation-adjusted returns in 83% of the high and rising inflation periods. “Commodities are a source of input costs for companies and they’re also a key component of the inflation index, which by definition you’re trying to hedge,” said Mr. Markowicz.
      • At the same time, commodities are among the most volatile of all asset classes and can be influenced by an array of idiosyncratic factors.
      • As it stands, many investors are optimistic about the long-term outlook of commodities, from corn to copper, arguing that prices have room to rise, even after a significant rally this year. Commodities, they argue, could be supported by continued strong demand from consumers and relatively limited supply, as many natural-resource companies take a conservative approach to production.
      • Darwei Kung, head of commodities and portfolio manager at DWS Group, noted that the widely tracked Bloomberg Commodity Index remains far below the peak it reached before the 2008-09 financial crisis. Still, “the system itself is very delicate,” he said. Anything that changes supply or demand for commodities “can change the price both directions.”
      • 關於TIPS: History suggests there might be better hedges than TIPS when inflation is especially high. According to the research by Mr. Markowicz, TIPS returns exceeded inflation in 71% of the periods when inflation was below 3% and rising, but only 63% of periods when it was above 3% and climbing.

  • 關於黃金:
    • The McClellan Market Report by McClellan Financial Publications
    • May 21: As detailed here in January, movements of gold prices tend to get echoed about 20½ months later in the movements of long-term interest rates.
    • The replication is not perfect, but the fact that gold’s movements have any correlation at all to interest rates so many months later is pretty amazing.
    • The relationship says that bond yields should be reaching a temporary top right about now. The next months should see a gentle retreat for interest rates, lasting until a bottom due around mid-August. But that pause will only be a temporary interruption of the path of much higher yields in the latter part of 2021 and into 2022. Remember that yields move inversely to prices, so a yield rise is a price drop for bonds. —Tom McClellan
  • 關於bitcoin
    • (出自於這篇文章)
      • In 2017, the market began to sell off after Bitcoin futures launched, and didn’t recover for years. This time, the crypto investor base is much deeper, and institutions began buying in earnest when prices hit the low-$30,000s. Support at those levels looks solid. But some people in derivatives trading don’t think the weakness is completely over.
      • “The ride up was relatively smooth,” Lim notes. “What a lot of people forgot is that crypto is prone to these massive drawdowns and liquidations that are due to leverage getting triggered.”
    • Big bitcoin moves can shake stock market, study finds — ‘no longer fringe asset’
  • 關於房市
    • One overlooked factor behind the construction pullback, says Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics, is dropping demand, as reflected in declining mortgage applications and a drop in existing home sales to the lowest level since July. The narrative of a raging housing boom is outdated and both sales volumes and construction activity are set to struggle over the next few months, he says.
    • 注意rental resurgence

Source: Barron's, etc. 

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